South East Queensland’s skyline is set for a shake-up, with new data pinpointing the suburbs expected to see the sharpest rise in urban density over the next year — potentially pushing up home prices and rents.

Exclusive analysis by property forecasters, Informed Decisions (id.), shows Newstead, Broadbeach, Fortitude Valley, Surfers Paradise and South Brisbane will record the biggest jumps in both population and dwelling numbers in the next 12 months.

Five Queensland postcodes feature in the nation’s top 10 density growth hotspots, with Newstead ranking fourth overall — just behind three Sydney suburbs — as it prepares to squeeze 10,404 people into just 70ha of space.

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The modelling shows that as land for new greenfield development runs out — particularly in inner Brisbane and across the Gold Coast — higher density housing will be needed to meet ongoing demand.

Informed Decisions government services lead Dan Evans said the results suggested Queensland’s major urban centres were entering a new phase of vertical growth, as limited land and continued population inflows pushed development skywards.

“The majority of these suburbs are densifying due to multiple high-density residential development projects like Chevron One on Chevron Island in Broadbeach, an area seeing its first tall towers after a re-zoning,” Mr Evans said.

“There are also greenfield areas like Ripley, where newer estates see smaller lot sizes and more townhouses than those built in previous years.”

Informed Decision’s forecasting program uses housing supply data, local zoning and demographic trends such as migration and birth rates to predict where density growth will be most concentrated.

Mr Evans said the shift towards smaller homes and higher-density living reflected a major planning and demographic pivot for southeast Queensland.

“Interesting examples include areas where land for greenfield development will run out — not in the next 12 months, but within the next decade,” he said.

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“At this time, our modelling shows when an area like the Gold Coast will be expected to see more high-density development as the demand remains, but there is scarce land available to build more large family homes.”

He said it was likely the suburbs where density was forecast to increase would also experience property price rises — particularly in desirable communities that were transport-oriented.

Many of the locations experiencing increased density had also undergone rezoning by their local councils from commercial or industrial to mixed-use or residential, allowing for higher density development.

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“I think there’s a push from state governments to increase the availability of residential land supply in those areas that are considered better equipped for transport and social infrastructure,” Mr Evans said. “Whether that supply is coming on as quickly as hoped is still an open question.

“If you’re trying to release additional supply into areas that are desirable to live in, there’s a tipping point. (Additional supply) can take away the benefits that make an area desirable.”

Mr Evans said the majority of the forecast supply was high-density — projects like Kokoda Property’s ‘Teneriffe Banks’ (about 200 units) and Panettiere Development’s ‘Little Italy’ (600 units) in Newstead.

Mosaic Property Group also just announced plans for a 37-level, 200-unit tower in South Brisbane.

So, does that mean the skylines in these higher-density areas will also grow taller?

“I would expect developers — because of quite thin margins on some of these projects — would make it in their interests to pursue increased height (limits) to make it a more viable opportunity.”

It comes as recent data from the Housing Industry Association (HIA) shows ‘gentle density’ — projects such as townhouses, duplexes, and terrace homes — is on the rise in a number of states.

HIA executive director planning, Sam Heckel, said medium density projects could deliver homes faster and more affordably.

“Australia’s housing crisis won’t be solved without increasing medium density dwellings, particularly in our larger cities,” Mr Heckel said.

“HIA has long argued that increasing housing diversity is essential, however, this missing middle has been progressively hollowed out, with detached homes or apartments dominating much of the new housing stock.”

With rising building and planning costs for apartments and new greenfield development stalled by infrastructure and environmental barriers, Mr Heckel said ‘gentle density’ was a solution for governments to meet housing targets.

But, planning rules in many regions still make smaller-scale projects unnecessarily difficult, according to the HIA.

“Up to three quarters of residential land is zoned only for single houses, and where gentle-density housing is permitted it often faces the same drawn-out approvals as much more complex and larger projects,” Mr Heckel said.

“Councils are regularly adding larger setbacks, deep-planting requirements and parking minimums that, while well-intentioned, render many projects commercially unviable.”

While many of the suburbs where density is set to increase were located in inner-city locations, Mr Evans agreed there was a need for the middle-ring suburbs to more of the “heavy lifting”.

“The liveability work we do shows inner-city areas tend to be more liveable than middle suburbs, and middle more liveable than outer suburbs, and access to reliable and efficient public transport is the key differentiator,” he said.

“So, if middle areas are expected to carry more of the load, then the ask in exchange is that they have public transport infrastructure the same as what we see in the city. There’s a pathway to improving prosperity through density.”

Master Builders Australia is also calling for more higher density projects to meet the demand for housing.

“With apartment approvals in particular now at some of the lowest levels seen over the past 12 months, the industry faces serious challenges meeting demand,” Master Builders Australia chief economist Shane Garrett said.

“The only way out of the housing crisis is to build more higher density housing. Apartments and townhouses must make up at least half of all residential construction if we are to meet demand and give Australians more affordable options in the places they want to live.”

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Melbourne’s skyline is spreading beyond the city, and the cranes are following it.

New analysis of Informed Decisions’ National Forecasting Program data shows density surging across the city’s middle ring, with mid-rise projects now reshaping once-leafy neighbourhoods from Box Hill and Footscray to Collingwood, Highett and Prahran.

It marks a turning point in how the city grows, a quiet vertical revolution that is changing the face of Melbourne’s suburbs.

Informed Decisions community-views service lead Dan Evans said Melbourne’s densification pattern had entered a new phase, driven by transport access, lifestyle demand and rising construction costs.

“Melbourne tends to densify closer to the CBD in areas like Southbank and Docklands,” Mr Evans said.

“But we are now seeing stronger growth around transit hubs such as Box Hill and Footscray, and more premium mid-rise projects in suburbs like Collingwood, Highett and Prahran to offset rising building costs.”

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Mr Evans said the shift was as much about lifestyle as affordability.

“Premium apartment products appeal to those who love apartment living and want to upgrade, but also to downsizers who want lower-maintenance housing without sacrificing location,” he said.

The Informed Decisions community-views service lead said Melbourne’s next decade of housing supply would increasingly come from infill and mid-rise projects clustered around rail corridors and lifestyle precincts rather than new estates on the city’s edge.

“Our forecasts match population-driven demand with the available housing supply,” Mr Evans said.
“When you see those two lines cross in the middle ring, that is where future density lands.
“It is not just about building taller, it is about building smarter.”

Buxton Mount Waverley director Peter Serafino said that change was already visible across Melbourne’s east, with cranes appearing in suburbs locals never imagined.

“You are seeing apartment sites pop up in Oakleigh East and Mount Waverley, areas that were always known for detached homes,” Mr Serafino said.

“A listing we handled on Huntingdale Rd really surprised people, but it sold fast.”

Mr Serafino said Glen Waverley’s transformation into a mini-CBD was spilling into surrounding postcodes.

“Mount Waverley offers the school zones and family feel people want, but it is still close to the action,” he said.
“Buyers want balance, a quieter pocket with everything nearby.”

The Buxton Mount Waverley agent said the strongest demand was for smaller blocks and boutique apartments that delivered design, lifestyle and long-term value.

“There is huge demand for homes on 200 to 300 square metres with two or three bedrooms,” Mr Serafino said.
“It is the first step into areas like Mount Waverley for young families who still want a bit of land and access to good schools.

“If it is an average, mass-produced build, there will be less demand, people want to feel proud of where they live. They want that sense of quality and longevity.”

Frame director and mortgage broker Imogen Alexy said those preferences were also reflected in lending trends, with many clients now choosing apartments as permanent homes rather than stepping stones.

“A lot of people could technically borrow more, but they do not want every last cent going towards a mortgage,” Ms Alexy said.

“It is no longer about size. It is about lifestyle and financial freedom.”

Ms Alexy said buyers were becoming more strategic and selective, favouring smaller, sustainable projects over volume developments.

“Smaller, well-built developments are holding value,” she said.
“Banks are becoming more interested in eco-friendly buildings, and buyers are prioritising quality and longevity over size.
“If a place is well built, in a great suburb, it will hold its value, that is where the market is heading.”

The Frame director said the next generation of borrowers was thinking differently, choosing lifestyle hubs close to rail lines or tram routes over large house-and-land estates.

“People want to live where life happens, not spend two hours a day commuting,” Ms Alexy said.
“We are seeing more interest in boutique projects like the Nightingale Housing developments.
“They are eco-friendly and community-driven, and it is about footprint and values as much as price. That mindset is growing fast.”

While private developers are leading Melbourne’s mid-rise movement, the state’s own densification agenda faces an uphill climb.

A Herald Sun analysis earlier this year found the Allan government’s plan for 60 new activity centres, designed to host 360,000 extra homes near public transport, could be years from reality.

Industry researchers warned of a $100,000 to $300,000 gap between what buyers can afford and what developers need to make projects viable.
Across much of Melbourne, apartments in proposed five and six-storey complexes would have to sell for about $875,000 to $1m to turn a profit, but buyers were typically only willing to pay about $775,000.

Experts said that gap, driven by taxes, material costs and red-tape delays, meant many activity-centre precincts were still far from feasible.

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Loan officer Elizabeth Galan, who works for UMortgage in Cincinnati, has had to pivot her business strategy in 2025.

Galan focuses on serving Hispanic borrowers — about 80% of her clients — in cities like Cincinnati and Dayton, Ohio, as well as northern Kentucky. Many of them hold non-permanent resident status, meaning they live in the U.S. under a work visa, for example. Recent immigration policies adopted by the Trump administration have directly affected her clients, forcing her to adapt quickly.

“I am very active in the Hispanic community, so I’m starting one of the first BNI (Business Network International) groups in Cincinnati to help having a bilingual business network channel to connect with more professionals in the area,” Galan said. “I’ve also been partnering up with immigration attorneys to educate the consumer.” 

When she spoke with HousingWire in late September, Galan had 12 clients under contract — 90% of them Hispanic and about half residents. Despite the challenges, she said her business is growing due to her new approach.

New immigration policies have banned non-permanent residents from some government-backed loan programs, altered borrower behaviors and reduced appetite for nonqualified mortgages (non-QMs). The changes have forced LOs and lenders to shift strategies.

In March, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) issued new guidance limiting loan eligibility to U.S. citizens and permanent residents, aligning with President Donald Trump’s broader policy agenda. The FHA cited immigration-related uncertainty as a key factor, saying non-permanent residents face potential legal and residency risks that could affect loan repayment.

The ban has pushed LOs to convert clients to conventional loans, which typically require higher credit scores.

The FHA program traditionally serves first-time homebuyers, allowing down payments as low as 3.5% and accepting credit scores down to the 500 range (with a 580 minimum for the lowest down payment). It also offers more flexible debt-to-income ratios and competitive interest rates.

“At least 70% of my clients were getting FHA loans,” Galan said. “Now, we have to convert them to conventional loans and help them get higher credit scores. Technically, conventional loans can be financed with a 620 credit score, however, the rate and PMI are atrocious. That means a client that might be able to afford a $200,000 home might only be able to qualify for $150,000. We have to work to get them in a higher credit tier.”

Slowdown in non-QM, ITIN lending

Lenders and LOs have also reported a decline in ITIN (Individual Taxpayer Identification Number) loans, a type of non-QM product often held by private investors. 

“Are we watching what’s happening with visas and immigration status on the ITINs? We’re paying attention to that, just so that we don’t originate a loan today and yesterday there was a change. You sort of got to play by those rules,” said Marc Halpern, CEO of Foundation Mortgage. “Is foreign national borrower lending off? Yes, it’s off from where it certainly was.”

Foundation Mortgage specializes in non-QM wholesale lending, operating in about 30 states. Based in South Florida, Halpern said many of his clients are Latin American and European investors who prefer to hold real estate in the U.S.

“We did strong volume from 2017 to 2023 for foreign nationals, mainly for short-term rentals,” Halpern said. “That market is certainly off its highs, but people are still buying.”

Despite new immigration policies, sources said that non-QM products remain available and underwriting guidelines have not changed. ITIN borrowers typically put 20% down and pay rates that are 1 to 1.5 percentage points higher than conventional borrowers.

“You’d also be surprised about how much money these people save,” Galan said. “These buyers are very qualified — they usually have more money than those that actually have a work permit or a Social Security number.”  

In the secondary market, a report from credit rating agency KBRA found that noncitizen borrower exposure has increased two and a half times over the past five years in private-label residential mortgage-backed securities.

“There are no federal laws prohibiting mortgage lending to noncitizens, and core regulations — such as the Ability-to-Repay (ATR) rule and fair lending laws — apply regardless of immigration status,” the report states. “While a few states restrict property ownership for certain foreign nationals, homeownership and foreclosure processes for noncitizens is generally the same as for U.S. citizens, with no legal barrier to lien enforcement.”

Default rates for foreign nationals are 4.6%, compared to 1.7% for U.S. citizens. This reflects a much lower owner-occupancy rate of 13.1%, reliance on foreign income and limited credit history, according to the study.

Exposure to ITIN loans remains minimal and confined to nonprime transactions, KBRA noted.

“Although performance has been positive to date — with virtually no defaults or losses — the dataset is very limited, warranting continued observation in today’s shifting political environment,” the report said. 

The Darwin suburbs expected the see the highest rise in density across the next year have been revealed with new data showing how the NT stacks up compared to the rest of Australia.

Exclusive analysis by property forecasters, Informed Decisions found the suburbs expected to see the highest growth in population and home numbers within the next 12 months were Zuccoli, Parap, Darwin City, Muirhead and Lyons.

Informed Decision’s forecasting program used housing supply data, local zoning and demographic trends such as migration and birthrates to predict where density growth will be most concentrated.

Density, measured by number of people per hectare, was expected to jump from 19.2 to 21.1 in Zuccoli, with the population of the 333ha suburb expected to grow from 6,423 to 7,046.

Within the 110ha suburb of Parap, the density is predicted to rise from 27.6 to 28.4 with the population increasing from 3045 to 3131 within 12 months.

In Darwin City, which covers 317ha, density will go from 25.06 to 25.72 off the back of a population growth of 210 people.

The data showed Parap had the highest density at present with 27.63 people per hectare, followed by Stuart Park (26.67), Nakara (26.34), Lyons (25.37) and Darwin City (25.06).

In comparison, density was sitting at 244.52 people per hectare in Wentworth Point, NSW, 204.38 in Elizabeth Bay, NSW and 186.61 in Zetland, NSW.

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Informed Decisions government services lead Dan Evans said the results suggested Australia’s major urban centres were entering a new phase of vertical growth, as limited land and continued population inflows pushed development skywards.

The analysis predicted the highest density increase would be a jump of 16.64 people per hectare in Eastgardens, NSW, where 6098 people already live in a space of just 53ha.

Next was Zetland, NSW, with density per hectare expected to jump from 186 to 201, while in Rhodes density would increase from 124.8 to 133.1.

Mr Evans said the majority of forecast supply was high-density, but was heading into medium to low-rise development, such as townhouses with shared onsite amenities.

He said it was likely the suburbs where density was forecast to increase would also experience property price rises — particularly in desirable communities that were transport-oriented.

Mr Evans said many of the locations experiencing increased density had also undergone rezoning from commercial or industrial to mixed-use or residential, allowing for higher density development.

“I think there’s a push from state governments to increase the availability of residential land supply in those areas that are considered better equipped for transport and social infrastructure,” he said.

“Whether that supply is coming on as quickly as hoped is still an open question.

“If you’re trying to release additional supply into areas that are desirable to live in, there’s a tipping point.

“(Additional supply) can take away the benefits that make an area desirable.”

While many of the suburbs where density was set to increase were located in inner-city locations, Mr Evans said there was a need for the middle-ring suburbs to more of the “heavy lifting”.

“The liveability work we do shows inner-city areas tend to be more liveable than middle suburbs, and middle more liveable than outer suburbs, and access to reliable and efficient public transport is the key differentiator,” he said.

“So, if middle areas are expected to carry more of the load, then the ask in exchange is that they have public transport infrastructure the same as what we see in the city.

“There’s a pathway to improving prosperity through density.”

DENSITY PREDICTIONS FOR THE NT

(SOURCE: Informed Decisions)

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A classic Darwin home that was once a local swim school has hit the market after a complete renovation.

The current owners of 86 Alawa Cres, Alawa, bought the home in 2021 with an aim to completely overhaul the property.

The wife said she found the “perfectly imperfect” elevated while her husband was away for work.

“He said he trusted my judgement and whatever I picked, we’d make work,” she said.

“Everyone thought we were mad because we were both working full time, had three young kids and were both at university as well.”

The owner said she just couldn’t pass up on the house.

“It felt like a family home,” she said.

“You could tell the house was really loved, it just needed some work.”

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The owner said the house had survived Cyclone Tracy virtually unscathed.

“I’ve got photos after Tracy where the other houses were gone but this one was still standing.

“It was built so well and ahead of its time.

“(The previous owner) told me the story of how she sat in the hallway with her kids when the cyclone came through and she told me all about the swim school.

“We also had tradies who told us they used to come here as kids to learn to swim.

“I was really aware I was taking over a beautiful family home.”

The couple quickly set about renovating the house, but all didn’t go to plan.

“My husband originally planned to take four months long service leave, then his work arrangements changed and he wasn’t able to take that time off,” the owner said.

“So what was going to be a six-month renovation turned into three-year renovation.

“We had to remove a lot of internal walls at once and the ceiling.

“That meant we had to live in our caravan down the side of the house.

“The kids loved it though – they thought it was like camping.”

The couple kept the floor plan fairly similar but converted the fifth bedroom and a small ensuite into a larger ensuite and walk-in robe.

The kitchen and bathrooms were all upgraded, a cyclone shelter was converted into a combined laundry and bathroom, new flooring was put in and the whole home was refreshed.

“The lounge and dining room had really beautiful ceilings and beautiful panelling on the walls, so we tried to restore that and the rest of the house was basically removed back to studs,” the owner said.

“It was lovely being able to restore the parts we could to keep the character and renovate the parts that needed it.

“After we finished, we invited the (previous owners) back.

“We kept one of their height charts we found behind a door and gave it to them.

“They loved what we’d done with the place.”

The home has an open plan living, dining and kitchen space upstairs, opening to the front balcony, which overlooks the pool.

The kitchen has a five-burner gas stove, pendent lighting and an island bench with breakfast bar.

The main bedroom has a study nook, an ensuite with bath and shower, an airconditioned walk-in robe and balcony access.

The three remaining bedrooms have built-in robes and the family bathroom has floor-to-ceiling tiling and an oversized walk-in shower.

Downstairs, there is a rumpus room with bar, a covered entertaining area with outdoor kitchen and a combined bathroom and laundry.

The in-ground pool has paved surrounds and there is plenty of lawn space, established gardens and parking for up for four vehicles.

The owner said her favourite part of the home was the pool area.

“We’ve spent so many afternoons in the pool,” she said.

“The kids love coming home for school and jumping in the pool.”

PROPERTY DETAILS

Address: 86 Alawa Cres, Alawa

Bedrooms: 5

Bathrooms: 3

Carparks: 4

Auction: Tue, Oct 14, 5.30pm

Agents: Evie Radonich, 0439 497 199, Andrew Harding, 0408 108 698, Ray White Darwin

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