As we celebrate Father’s Day, Ashley Harris recognizes her father, her husband and the dads who lead with presence — in every form that takes.

As investors see local markets and rental prices soften, they’ve started to unload underperforming inventory at a record pace.

Once affordable Queensland suburbs are undergoing a $12.6 billion residential glow up, going from daggy to dreamy as older houses make way for modern marvels.

Drab post-war homes and rundown Queenslanders are either being knocked down or extensively renovated, with architecturally-designed residences rising in new suburbs as the wealth belt continues to tighten across the state.

BEFORE: 45 Dorrigo Street, Stafford Heights

AFTER: 45 Dorrigo Street, Stafford Heights

The latest HIA Queensland Outlook for Autumn revealed that continued high demand for houses in the Sunshine State fuelled renovations to the tune of $12.6 billion last year.

“Council approvals for renovations in Queensland increased by 8.3 per cent in 2024, while lending for renovations increased by 13 per cent in the year to March 2025,” the report revealed.

“Total renovations investment in Queensland is expected to moderate at very high levels, driven by larger-scale work that require financing and approval.

“Queensland also has a disproportionately and relatively larger renovation market than its dwelling stock.

“The value of renovation investment in Queensland in 2024 was $12.6 billion, only $70 million lower than Victoria.”

The report noted that Victoria has 700,000 more existing dwellings than Queensland, which only has 2.27 million homes.

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BEFORE: 12 Barmore Street, Tarragindi.

AFTER: 12 Barmore Street, Tarragindi

Further, it was revealed that the average value of a owner-occupier renovation loan in Queensland was $208,950 in the March quarter, up from $171,160 at the same time last year.

“The value of approvals for alterations and additions in Queensland has reached new highs in the last few quarters, most recently sitting almost two-thirds above its decade average,” the report said.

“In chain volume terms, the value of renovation approvals in the 2024 calendar year has increased by 6.2 per cent to $2.9 billion.

“The number of loans issued for renovations has also increased in the 12 months to March 2025, up by 13.0 per cent to 11,220.”

BEFORE: 28 Fairholme Street, East Toowoomba

AFTER: 28 Fairholme Street, East Toowoomba

And those renovations are playing out right across the state.

In Redcliffe, a seaside suburb once seen as the poor cousin of the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, a “triumph” by internationally acclaimed architect Nicholas Elias has been listed for sale, with top offers closing on July 1.

The striking home is a far cry from the post-war home that stood in its place.

BEFORE: 12 Greenup Street, Redcliffe

AFTER: 12 Greenup Street, Redcliffe

Place New Farm agent Heath Williams, who is marketing the showstopper, said many of the high-spec new builds were popping up in suburbs where the land value was less prohibitive.

He said many were also in areas not subject to character overlays.

“The suburbs closer to the city have land values that are too high and then you have to deal with remedial works which can open up a can of worms,” Mr Williams said.

“You wouldn’t expect to see the calibre of some of these new builds in certain suburbs but every time values go up, that pushes buyers further out.”

Meanwhile, in family-friendly Wavell Heights, the median house price has more than doubled in a decade, with the average home now selling for $1.209 million, up from $536,000.

And there is no shortage of new builds and reimagined homes coming to life.

Queensland Sotheby’s International Realty agent Tyson Clarke has a brand new Hampton’s-style residence for sale at 10 Calga Street in Wavell Heights.

It replaced a post war cottage on a 746sq m block.

“People who did renovations a decade, now things like The Block have made renos trendy fashion statements,” Mr Clarke said.

“Buyers today want to move in and do nothing. They want it done, even if it costs them more at sale.”

BEFORE: 10 Calga Street, Wavell Heights

AFTER: 10 Calga Street, Wavell Heights

Mr Clarke said that many of the suburbs undergoing residential rejuvenation were also suburbs that had been held for decades.

And once one sells, others tended to follow suit.

“There is a kind of changing of the guard in some of these suburbs,” he said.

“In Calga Street, for example, there are four houses that have been knocked down and rebuilt and at least another two starting on the renovation phase.

“I don’t know that it is so much about stock, but rather about timing. Their needs have changed.”

Mr Clarke added that the so-called “rings” had moved out, as prices increased closer to the city.

“What was once a fringe ring is now inner-city,” he said.

“If you look at Wavell Heights, prior to January 2023, no properties sold over $3 million.

“Now high $2 million to low $3 million is the norm and we are seeing movement out to places like Virginia.

“What is also interesting is that the people who bought early in the inner and middel rings have seen huge equity growth, and they are moving closer in and going up a price bracket.”

In Tarragindi, a solid brick house was knocked down to make way for a luxurious new home.

But it is not just the overcooked Brisbane market where old is making way for new.

In East Toowoomba, a recently completed Marc & Co designed masterpiece has replaced a tired 1950s home, while a resort-style residence with a pool and gazebo has replaced a tackle shing shop and high-set house in Tewantin on the Sunshine Coast.

Up north, a Railway Estate house in Townsville has been extensively renovated and is now listed for offers over $699,000, while a classic 1935 Queenslander in the Cairns suburb of Manoora has been restored to its former glory.

BEFORE: 40 Seventh Street, Railway Estate

AFTER: 40 Seventh Street, Railway Estate

But the number of detached house approvals fell by 7.4 per cent in the March quarter across the state, according to the latest building approvals data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The biggest falls were recorded in Central Queensland (-48.7 per cent), followed by Gold Coast (-23.9 per cent), Downs & Western (-22.6 per cent), Greater Brisbane (-12.2 per cent), and Far North Queensland (-7.5 per cent), while the Sunshine Coast experienced a minor drop at -1.4 per cent over the quarter.

BEFORE: 27 Hilton Terrace, Tewantin

AFTER: 27 Hilton Terrace, Tewantin

North Queensland was the standout performer posting a massive 32.3 per cent gain, while small gains were also recorded Wide Bay Burnett (+4.6 per cent) and Mackay/Whitsunday (+3.8 per cent).

“Relatively affordable land and housing and rapid population growth – from both overseas and interstate – has catapulted Queensland out of the trough caused by higher interest rates,” HIA North Queensland executive director Peter Fry said.

“North Queensland in particular has seen building approvals surge in the last year, including increases of 50.8 per cent in Mackay-Isaac-Whitsunday (+102.1 per cent in Mackay alone), +49.1 per cent in Central Queensland (+83.8 per cent in Gladstone, +35.3 per cent in Rockhampton) and +29.1 per cent in Townsville – North Queensland.

“Cairns and Far North is the main North Queensland region that is yet to see this kind of improvement, with building approvals up by just 0.7 per cent in the last year. Infrastructure bottlenecks are standing in the way of the next major wave of home building in Cairns.

The post Blow up, glow up: The $12bn transformation of Qld suburbs appeared first on realestate.com.au.

Why aren’t home sales crashing as they did in 2022? Right now we have elevated mortgage rates, trade war uncertainty, rising property taxes and home insurance, terrible consumer confidence data and a downgrade of the government’s debt, among other factors. But, housing demand continues to hold up, surprising people who can’t explain why home sales aren’t crashing anymore given elevated mortgage rates. So, let me try to make sense of it.

Remember, the bar is so low we can trip over it, but millions of people buy homes every year and we are still on pace to have nearly 5 million total home sales in 2025.

Purchase application data

In a total shocker for 2025 — which is receiving no airtime whatsoever — purchase application data from last week showed 20% year-over-year growth and 10% week-to-week growth. People have no idea what to make of this data line in 2025, so most tend to ignore talking about it. I wrote this article last week to give some perspective, but last week was one of the best weeks in years. 

Here is the weekly data for 2025:

• 11 positive readings
• 8 negative readings
• 3 flat prints
• 19 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data 

Weekly pending sales

Our weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week glimpse into the data; however, this data line can also be impacted by holiday weekends and any short-term shocks. Last week’s data was a bit soft, most likely due to the holiday weekend, but we saw a bounce back in sales and we are still showing year-over-year growth with mortgage rates near 7%. 

Weekly pending sales for last week over the last two years:

• 2025: 72,039
• 2024: 68,916

Total pending sales

The latest weekly data on total pending sales from Altos offers valuable insights into current trends in housing demand. Typically, mortgage rates around 6% are necessary for significant growth in the housing market. Although total pending home sales are slightly higher than last year, it’s surprising to see this data remain steady despite elevated rates in 2025. The seasonal peak period for our data has ended. 

Weekly pending sales for the last week over the past several years:

• 2025: 405,489
• 2024:  395,923

All in all, the housing market is not only experiencing a healthier inventory year, but demand is holding up even with elevated mortgage rates, crazy headlines and one bear market print in stocks. Not too shabby if you ask me.

10-year yield and mortgage rates

In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:

• Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.70%

We had an eventful week, as both inflation reports came in tame, taking the 10-year yield to as low as 4.32% on the night when Israel attacked Iran. However, we saw no push into the 10-year yield or the U.S. dollar as a safety play on Friday as stocks sold off. All in all, mortgage rates didn’t move too much, as we went from 6.95% to 6.85% and ended the week at 6.89%. Improved mortgage spreads do limit the upside damage in mortgage rates when the 10-year yield rises.

Mortgage spreads

Mortgage spreads have been elevated since 2022 but have improved since their peak in 2023. We experienced some drama with the spreads as the markets dealt with the tariffs, but things have improved as the market has calmed down. It’s been critical to see spreads get better on days when the 10-year yield goes up because that limits the damage of a higher 10-year yield. 

If the spreads were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 0.71%  higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.79% to 0.59% % lower than today’s level. Historically, mortgage spreads have typically ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%.

Weekly housing inventory data

The most significant development in the housing market for me has been the growth of inventory in 2024 and 2025. As someone who described the housing market as unhealthy in late 2020 and savagely unhealthy in early 2022, the inventory growth we’ve experienced over the past two years has been a blessing. Two weeks ago, the increase in inventory was a bit slow, but we had a good pick-up up this week, as the housing market is heading back to normal inventory levels, which will lay the foundation for many years to come. 

• Weekly inventory change (June 6-June 13): Inventory rose from 808,564 to 825,761
• The same week last year (June 7-June 14): Inventory rose from 611,543 to 620,622

New listings data

One of the forecasts I got wrong last year was that the new listings would reach at least 80,000 per week during the seasonal peak period — that didn’t happen. This year, I have maintained that forecast and we have exceeded 80,000 twice so far. However, over the last two weeks, the growth has been slower than I expected. I was hoping to see some weeks with numbers ranging between 80,000 and 100,000, but I am running out of time for that to occur. We did see a bounce this week, but again, lower than I would have liked. 

To give you some perspective, during the years of the housing bubble crash, new listings were soaring between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for many years. Last week’s new listings data over the past two years:

• 2025: 78,289
• 2024: 71,486

Price-cut percentage

In a typical year, about one-third of homes experience price reductions, highlighting the housing market’s dynamic nature. Many homeowners adjust their sale prices as inventory levels rise and mortgage rates stay elevated.

For my 2025 price forecast, I anticipated a modest increase in home prices of approximately 1.77%. This suggests that 2025 will again see a negative real home price forecast. In 2024, my forecast of a 2.33% increase proved inaccurate, primarily because mortgage rates fell toward 6% and demand improved in the second half of 2024. As a result, home prices ended up increasing by 4% in 2024. 

The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year reinforces my cautious growth forecast for 2025. 

• 2025: 39.5%
• 2024: 36%

The week ahead: Fed week, Israel and Iran, retail sales and housing starts

Do I need to add anything beyond that headline? We have an enormous week ahead with significant data releases, a Federal Reserve meeting and ongoing questions surrounding the war in the Middle East. Additionally, jobless claims have been trending upward lately.

The key for the Fed meeting is to listen to their language on the risk of labor versus inflation, since the labor data has become softer but the inflation data has not yet worsened. As always, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the data this week.