Vanishing kids: unexpected crisis hits key Sydney suburbs

Kids and teens are disappearing from many Sydney suburbs due to housing costs. child

Spiralling housing costs and the rampant construction of high-rise buildings dominated by one-bedroom units has turned parts of Sydney into children’s deserts where kids are increasingly rare.

Analysis of PropTrack and ABS data showed multiple suburbs where less than a tenth of residents were aged under 20, with kids under nine accounting for as little as 2 per cent of locals, in some instances.

There were also multiple areas where the children population was close to half what it was at the start of the 2000s despite an increase in the population overall.

This was a much faster decline than the drop in overall Aussie fertility rates over the period.

Experts said a housing affordability crisis – especially during Covid – was behind the diminishing numbers of kids in some areas, with parents increasingly moving their families to cheaper suburbs.

Tom and Sarah Norris, with kids Lou Lou and Oscar, are selling their much loved Fairlight unit to move further away. Picture: Thomas Lisson

“A key reason our birthrate is declining is because of poor housing affordability,” said demographer Mark McCrindle. “That’s especially pronounced in the more expensive parts of Sydney.

“An ageing population has been a long-term trend but it really got accelerated during Covid because of the tremendous home price rises pushing a lot more younger people out of many areas. Families are also having less kids.”

He added that this was changing the fabric of Sydney. “We will reach a point where the median age of residents in some areas will be very high and these areas will lack diversity of age.”

Sydney as a whole was already ageing faster than the rest of the country and a continued exodus of families with young kids would exacerbate coming challenges, Mr McCrindle said.

This Waterloo house recently sold for $2.1m: the suburb now has one of Sydney’s lowest kids populations as a proportion of total residents.

“It means supporting an ageing population in Sydney will become an even bigger burden on the next generations,” Mr McCrindle said.

ABS data showed most of the suburbs underdoing a juvenile drought had property prices hundreds of thousands of dollars above the city average, while rents were among the highest in the country.

They included Potts Point and Elizabeth Bay, where less than 5 per cent of residents were under 20. The proportion in nearby Rushcutters Bay and Darlinghurst was close to 6 per cent.

Low numbers of children and teens – making up less than 10 per cent of residents – were also observed in Waterloo, Wolli Creek, Surry Hills, Redfern and Kirribilli.

But there were also emerging children deserts in areas that had historically been dominated by families.

North Shore suburb St Leonards had a particularly notable shift. About 27 per cent of the St Leonards population were under the age of 15 in 2001, but by 2021 they made up just 11 per cent.

There was a similar trend in inner west suburb Newtown: 20.5 per cent of residents were under 15 in 2001 but by the 2021 census this age group accounted for only 9.1 per cent of locals.

Rising prices in once family dominated regions like the outer inner west, north shore and northern beaches had often coincided with increased high-rise construction.

This led to the rapid transformation of local housing as detached houses were knocked down to make way for small units.

Heavily developed Homebush was a case in point: those aged below 15 accounted for a fifth of residents in 2001 but following rapid unit construction this figure declined to 15 per cent.

It was a similar story in Burwood, Rhodes, Zetland and Mascot.

Source: ABS.

Ray White Northern Beaches agent Eddy Piddington said couples had always moved to further flung suburbs once they had children but the trend had accelerated in recent years.

“There’s been a definite change at the higher end of the market,” Mr Piddington said.

“We have high-end buyers you only used to see in eastern Harbour suburbs before. They will call and say ‘I want to spend $12m. What do you have?’ That didn’t happen before.

“It’s become a lot harder for families to upgrade from a unit to a house in the same area, but it does depend on the family. Some value location above the property so they will stay, but for those who want a larger house they can afford, they usually have to move.”

Fairlight resident Tom Norris is selling the Sydney Rd unit he and his partner bought prior to having their two kids. They’re hoping to upsize to a larger house and said they will have to look further out.

Tom Norris said houses in their area were too expensive so they are planning to sell their unit and move to a different area. Picture Thomas Lisson

The Norris family’s Sydney Rd unit is one of the best in the area, with an open outdoor area with district views.

“There are a lot of families in this area. You see kids all around the houses … but I know a lot of people who are in the same position. They’re moving because they need more space and they can’t afford a house unless they go further away.”

The Sydney areas where kids were most abundant tended to be low-rise suburbs – often new estates in outer areas.

The supply of freestanding houses in these areas was usually growing and home prices were lower than average.

Suburbs where those aged below 20 made up more than 30 per cent of residents were Ropes Crossing, The Ponds, The Gables, Oran Park, Jordan Springs and Marsden Park.

Most of these outer suburbs had houses about $300,000-$400,000 cheaper than the Greater Sydney median price and had a high supply of recently built housing.

Mr Norris said he would miss aspects of the Fairlight lifestyle. “We love the unit,” he said. “We bought it just at the start of Covid and it really stood out. It’s more like a townhouse or semi but it’s time to move on.”

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