Suburbs where cheap Melbourne homes’ prices rose tenfold

More than forty Melbourne suburbs have surged at least 10 times in value since the mid 1990s, new PropTrack analysis shows.

Mornington Peninsula suburbs Blairgowrie, Portsea and Sorrento recorded the strongest long-term growth, with typical home values now 13 times what they were 30 years ago.

New PropTrack data reveals more than forty Melbourne suburbs have had prices surge at least tenfold since the mid-1990s, reshaping wealth across the city and delivering million-dollar windfalls to long-term owners. Picture: Manuela Cifra.

Buyers who paid under $100,000 in 1995 are now more than $1m better off.
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Closer to the city, Ashburton in the leafy east has risen more than 12 times over the same period, pushing its median above $2m.

Deepdene, Seddon, Aspendale and Kingsville have also joined the 10 times club after decades of rising demand and gentrification.

Analysis shows the past 30 years were shaped by major shifts in supply, interest rates and population growth.

PropTrack economics executive manager Angus Moore says Melbourne’s extraordinary thirty-year growth was driven by long-term undersupply, population surges and the decades-long fall in interest rates.

Ashburton is among Melbourne’s top long-term performers with home values rising more than twelve times since the mid-1990s. This three-bedroom home at 38 Prosper Parade sold for $1.96m in September.

PropTrack economics executive manager Angus Moore said Australia had built far fewer homes relative to population growth over the period, creating long running supply shortages.

He said the boom also lined up with a structural fall in interest rates.

“Rates used to be higher and more volatile,” Mr Moore said.

“Lower rates mean people can service larger mortgages.”

The economist added prices had also risen far beyond income growth, with Melbourne’s strong migration numbers boosting its population a key part of the pressure on home values.

Buyer’s advocate Cate Bakos says the strongest growth suburbs share early signals of rising demand — walkable villages, transport access and shifting buyer behaviour, long before gentrification is visible.

Aspendale has joined the tenfold-growth club after decades of rising buyer demand, this two-bedroom unit at 1/50 Eulinga Ave sold for $990,000 this year.

Prominent Melbourne buyers agent Cate Bakos said the long term outperformers tended to share the same traits: a village shopping strip within walking distance, cafe culture and transport.

“The real clues to future growth appear before a suburb visibly changes,” Ms Bakos said.

“The earliest signs appear in the data long before you see a wine bar or a sourdough bakery move in.

“Increased buyer activity especially from people migrating from more expensive pockets in search of value is the giveaway.”

But the prominent Melbourne buyer’s advocate said another three decade boom was unlikely.

“The structural decline in interest rates has already happened and probably won’t happen again,” Ms Bakos said.

Marshall White Sorrento auctioneer Adam Kenyon says Blairgowrie’s rise began with affordability, before the Yacht Squadron marina and village strip drew a new wave of buyers.

Marshall White Sorrento auctioneer Adam Kenyon said Blairgowrie’s rise to the top of Melbourne’s market began with affordability.

“Initially it was affordability,” Mr Kenyon said.

“Blairgowrie was noticeably cheaper than Sorrento or Portsea.”

He added that the Blairgowrie Yacht Squadron marina built about 20 years ago had put the area on the radar for a whole new set of buyers, as had the growing prominence of its local shopping village.

“It stopped being the town you drive through to get to Sorrento,” Mr Kenyon said.

Dean Kent’s family home at 2905 Point Nepean Road shows how Blairgowrie’s values have transformed since the 1990s, when the property was purchased for $455,000.

Dean Kent’s father bought their 2905 Point Nepean Rd, Blairgowrie, home in the 1990s for $455,000, according to sales records.

It’s currently for sale for $6.6m-$6.9m, with Mr Kent noting that despite a rise in home values, the suburb had remained true to its coastal character.

“It still feels like the beach,” Mr Kent said.