Will mortgage rates go higher if the government takes the GSEs out of conservatorship? Many people would say yes if there were no government backing of these two giants, but on Tuesday evening the calculus changed. In a social media post on Tuesday, President Trump expressed his intention to transition the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) out of conservatorship while also signaling support for an implicit guarantee.

On Truth Social, Trump posted: “Our great Mortgage Agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, provide a vital service to our Nation by helping hardworking Americans reach the American Dream — Home Ownerhip. I am working on TAKING THESE AMAZING COMPANIES PUBLIC, but I want to be clear, the U.S. Government will keep its implicit GUARANTEES, and I will stay strong in my position on overseeing them as President. These Agencies are now doing very well, and will help us to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Over the past few days, I have carefully examined the potential factors contributing to the government’s delay in advancing this process. Last week, I discussed the Treasury’s perspective on the issue and later noted FHFA Director Bill Pulte’s appeal to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the potential for interest rate reductions.

On the HousingWire Daily podcast that will publish on Wednesday, I provide an in-depth analysis of the biggest risk that could arise if the government doesn’t extend its support to the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) with either an implicit or explicit guarantee.

Let’s take a look at the difference between these two guarantees.

The implicit guarantee 

At first glance, some might think an implicit guarantee is as solid as a rock, and I would say it’s much better than having no guarantee at all. I’ve never believed the GSEs could be removed without some form of government backing. The Urban Institute took a look at the issue in this paper published at the start of the year, and I thought their definition was great: 

“This assumption, which came to be called the GSEs’ “implicit guarantee,” afforded the GSEs many of the benefits of a government agency, which was critical to both their business model and their role in the nation’s housing finance system.”

The Implicit guarantee was market code to indicate that, in the event of a crisis, the government would intervene to save these two major companies. This intervention would ensure that the system won’t implode because these two giants are the real geese that lay the golden eggs of the U.S. economy — and why so many countries hate us because of our 30-year-fixed product. This implicit guarantee was in place before the great financial crisis.

After the housing bust, the government fulfilled the promise of this implicit guarantee and stepped in to take the giants into conservatorship, while their stock prices plummeted to near zero.

Now, under conservatorship, they operate under an explicit guarantee.

The explicit guarantee

The explicit guarantee approach is notably different and potentially more effective than the implicit guarantee as it establishes a legally binding framework for all investors, ensuring robust government protections. This enhancement significantly reduces investment risk and addresses concerns regarding the widening of mortgage spreads highlighted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in an interview last week with Bloomberg. 

Given the benefits of the explicit guarantee, one might question the rationale of removing the GSEs from conservatorship, especially since they’re currently in such a secure position to lend to Americans. In the HousingWire Daily podcast publishing Wednesday morning, I address all of the essential considerations about the future of GSEs, taking a closer look at investor concerns and examining how mortgage pricing might be impacted in the absence of implicit or explicit guarantees.

For now, I am encouraged that we have at least an implicit guarantee on the books.

Conclusion

I have previously expressed some skepticism regarding the likelihood of the GSEs being removed from conservatorship, as it seemed challenging to do so without an implicit or explicit guarantee. However, the introduction of an implicit guarantee now makes the possibility more tangible.

But if investors inform the White House economic team that releasing the GSEs from conservatorship will cause mortgage rates to rise and spreads to worsen during a market calamity or recession, the release might never happen. The last thing the housing industry wants is for government actions to drive mortgage rates even higher inadvertently.

Tune into the podcast tomorrow for a deeper understanding of the risks associated with removing the GSEs from conservatorship and what can mitigate those risks.

The Myer family’s Toorak estate, Cranlana, has been approved for a striking overhaul.

The Myer family’s sprawling, $100m Toorak estate Cranlana has been green-lit for an incredible renovation that could transform it into Melbourne’s most prestigious home.

The 62 Clendon Rd property is now approved for a new pool with a neighbouring wellness centre, several outbuildings an interior redesign and a striking tennis court zone in its expansive gardens.

It remains the city’s most expensive active property listing, after hitting the market in spring last year with a $96m-$105m asking price.

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That sum has subsequently been trumped by the more than $100m sale of nearby mansion Coonac, by former Essendon Football Club president Paul Little and his Melbourne University chancellor wife Jane Hansen.

But Myer Family Investments have now revealed plans for a Heritage Victoria-approved overhaul to the 1.14ha landmark they are understood to have been seeking since prior to it being offered for sale.

An initial deadline for buyers interested in the home was set for November 11 in 2024, but Toorak locals and industry sources had indicated there were question marks over how feasible a renovation would be at the heritage listed property.

The release of a selection of renders, and details that include a new pool, a 20-car basement garage and modernised living spaces within the home surprised many of these parties.

The home is approved for a new pool with an accompanying wellness centre in its expansive gardens.

The impressive residence and gardens as they are today.

The property is being sold by Myer Family Investments (MFI), whose chairman is Rupert Myer. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascui.

Marshall White listing agent Marcus Chiminello would not discuss prospective buyers’ views on the home, but said the new imagery showed what could be achieved.

“The approved plans would transform it into one of Melbourne’s most impressive residences,” Mr Chiminello said.

“And it could be done in a pretty short timeline.”

Cranlana has been owned by the Myer family since Sidney Myer and wife Merlyn bought it in 1903.

It’s Italianate style has been celebrated as a part of Toorak’s heritage, while its grounds and the home itself have been used to host philanthropic and family events.

He added that strong transactions continued in Toorak, with the right homes still attracting strong offers — while noting that $100m was now seen as the top end of the city’s housing market.

A more modern interior could now be established for the home by its next owners.

Renders show that while the home is slated for a potential update, it would still retain much of its period charm and character.

“There are now probably a handful of properties worth these figures, but it’s just whether they will ever come up for sale,” Mr Chiminello said.

The agent said that there would be a six week window of high activity in Melbourne’s most illustrious suburbs following the federal election, with about three more weeks still to go.

Sales records show Mr Chiminello has had a bumper May, selling the Robertson St, Toorak, home of landscape architect to Melbourne’s elite Jack Merlo on May 20.

The home had been listed for $16m-$17m.

He has also sold luxury homes in Armadale and a penthouse in Toorak since the federal election.

Meanwhile there has been a $50m sale of the family home of the late Marc and Eva Besen, who established one of the city’s wealthiest families with children including Sussan fashion label boss Daniel Besen.

A redesign would look to enhance the home’s sense of space and use of natural light.

The 62 Clendon Rd, Toorak, property offers plenty of space as it stands.

It is understood the home was sold by Kay & Burton’s Ross Savas and Nick Kenyon, who also handled the $100m-plus sale of Coonac for Mr Little and Ms Hansen.

Michael Gibson has also recently sold 17 Linlithgow Rd, Toorak, above expectations in a boardroom auction.

Industry sources have indicated that the home sold for $12.61m, well above the $9.6m-$10.2m that had been listed as part of its expressions of interest.

Mr Gibson confirmed the home had six parties attend a private auction on Tuesday, May 20, and that it was on the market at $10m .

It was the second this month that they had taken to a private auction for more than $10m.

“The depth of that segment in the market is incredibly strong … it has never been stronger,” Mr Gibson said.

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City centre of Geelong in Victoria, Australia. Picture: iStock

More than one-in-10 people who packed up to move house outside of capital cities are settling in the Geelong region.

Regional Australia Institute’s Regional Movers Index for March saw Geelong record a 9.3 per cent net internal migration intake, overtaking Queensland’s Sunshine Coast as the nation’s leading destination for people moving to the country.

When including the Surf Coast, Queenscliff and Golden Plains council areas, the region’s intake rises to an almost 11 per cent share.

Geelong’s share of internal migration accelerated 96 per cent in the past year and is now greater than Victoria’s next three most popular destinations combined – Ballarat, Bendigo and the Moorabool Shire.

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More than one-in-10 people who packed up to move house outside of capital cities are settling in the Geelong region.

Greater Geelong’s ascent comes as regional Victoria captured 34 per cent of the total net inflows.

Commonwealth Bank acting executive general manager for regional and agribusiness banking Josh Foster said Geelong‘s idyllic location, established services and range of employment opportunities made is a star performer.

“This is underpinned by significant government and corporate investment in the region, including the Geelong Convention Centre which is due to be completed in 2026, and the Barwon’s Women and Children’s Hospital renovation and expansion expected to be completed in 2026/2027,” Mr Foster said.

Greater Geelong’s ascent comes as regional Victoria captured 34 per cent of the total net inflows.

To support the demand for housing, a target of an additional 128,600 dwellings in Greater Geelong by 2051 has been set by the Victorian Government, he said.

A roaring economy with rising blue collar and white collar industries saw more people choose the region, McGrath Geelong director David Cortous said.

“Geelong is leading the way with some manufacturing coming back,” he said.

“The blue collar grassroots of Geelong is well embedded through the region – that’s one reason why its growing.”

Growing health and education sectors and in particular the head office location of significant organisations such as NDIA, WorkSafe and TAC, as well as global clothing company Cotton On, meant the city was a destination for professional workers also, enjoying life in a city by Corio Bay and close to the Surf Coast.

“There’s also the liveability compared to Melbourne because the congestion in the big cities now is hard on people’s lifestyles,” Mr Cortous said.

“It’s a more affordable lifestyle here – execs and professional people can still pull the same type of income and probably live a bit more affordably.”

To support the demand for housing, a target of an additional 128,600 dwellings in Greater Geelong by 2051 has been set by the Victorian Government. Picture: Alan Barber

Property investors were also seeing the benefits, with Sydney buyers snapping up more investment properties in the suburbs, spurred on by low prices and the opportunity for growth and rental demand.

Geelong’s $720,000 median house price is still 4 per cent down on 12 months ago but market indicators show the city has passed the bottom of the market.

“We’re just starting to see the needle move now with a couple of interest rate cuts and more migration,” Mr Cortous said, documenting more people looking at properties, including up to 30 per cent out-of-town buyers.

But there are growing pains, such as development pressures to cater for more apartments and townhouses in existing suburbs and the high cost of building, property taxes and competition for tradies from massive state government projects in Melbourne.

“Because what the state government’s done with taxes and what the state government has done with the cost of build a house because they’ve sucked so much labour into their own projects, building houses in expensive,” Mr Cortous said.

“I think there’s going to more a lot of pressure on housing and demand for rental properties, because there hasn’t been as many investors in the market.”

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Senator Andrew Bragg has been named as Australia’s new shadow housing minister, charged with holding the government’s housing agenda to account and selling the opposition’s plan to fix the housing crunch.  

The new move came as opposition leader Sussan Ley and Nationals leader David Littleproud announced a new shadow cabinet in Canberra on Wednesday.  

“As shadow housing minister, Andrew will ensure that housing policy is at the heart of our economic agenda,” Ms Ley said.

Mr Bragg has picked up the top opposition housing role after the Coalition’s previous shadow minister and former housing minister, Michael Sukkar, lost his seat in the May 3 election. 

Mr Bragg is a Liberal Party senator who was elected to the senate for NSW in 2019, having served as the shadow assistant minister for home ownership since 2024. He will also serve as shadow productivity and deregulation minister.

“Congratulations to Senator Andrew Bragg on his appointments to the productivity, deregulation and housing portfolios, areas in which he is well versed,” Property Council chief executive Mike Zorbas said.

“The property industry is dealing with slow federal environmental approvals, and as a nation we are building half as many homes per hour worked than we did 30 years ago.”

It comes after weeks of turmoil following the Coalition’s election beating earlier this month, as the opposition lost even more seats while the government strengthened its seat majority.  

The new shadow housing minister will face a challenging task, trying to hold the federal government accountable as it continues to roll out its housing agenda.  

The federal government has committed about $43 billion towards its housing agenda since it came to power, which it says has focused on building more homes and improving home ownership rates.  

At the same time, Mr Bragg will have to look at the Coalition’s own housing plan and why it didn’t convince more voters in the recent election.   

The Coalition’s housing plan is likely to come under review after the opposition leader pledged to assess all of its policies following the poll defeat.  

The Coalition took a range of housing promises to the May 3 election, including its bold plan to allow first-home buyers of newly built homes to claim a tax deduction on mortgage interest payments.    

It wanted to allow buyers to dip into their superannuation to buy their first home and pledged to ease home lending rules. 

To boost housing supply, the opposition promised to speed up the housing development approval process and committed $5 billion towards housing infrastructure. 

The Coalition wanted to freeze any further changes to the National Construction Code for 10 years and cut overseas migration in a move it said would take the pressure off the housing market.  

The post Meet the man tasked with fighting Albo’s $43b housing plan appeared first on realestate.com.au.

Lifestyle resorts for singles over 50 are gaining popularity across Australia as more people recognise the value of social connection and community alongside maintaining their independence.

Modern, low-maintenance homes paired with resort-style facilities are creating a compelling alternative to traditional housing.

They also provide opportunities for social connection in a supportive environment–a big drawcard for singles over 50 looking to enhance their quality of life and improve their overall health.

A recent report by Oxford Economics Australia found demand for retirement communities has grown over the years, driven by developers turning up the luxury lifestyle offerings and an increasing awareness around the negative impacts of social isolation.

From 2006 to 2021, the number of people living in retirement communities nearly doubled, with occupancy rates surging to 95% in 2023.

While traditional retirement communities remain popular, lifestyle resorts like Aliria on Dean are emerging as a contemporary option offering more flexibility and independence, and one that is attracting a younger demographic of homeowners looking to enjoy active, social living.

Andrew Coulter, director of Aliria–a developer of lifestyle resorts for over-50s, backed by a team with decades of experience in the land lease sector–says they thoughtfully considered the needs of singles over 50 at Aliria on Dean, both practically and emotionally.

“We know that for many singles, especially those transitioning into a new phase of life after loss or separation, finding a place that feels both safe and welcoming is essential,” he says.

“Aliria on Dean is designed to offer a fresh start – one that doesn’t compromise independence but instead surrounds residents with opportunities for connection, activity, and a sense of belonging.

“Where many communities are designed with couples in mind, we’ve consciously created a space that supports a broader spectrum of life experiences.

“About 30% of our buyers so far are single women, and we’re seeing strong interest from single men as well.”

New beginnings, shared connections

After the passing of her husband last year, Carry Lee, 69, made the decision to downsize from her large family home on an acre of land to a more manageable and secure lifestyle at Aliria on Dean.

Seeking a fresh start, she was drawn to the brand-new villas, no entry or exit fees, full retention of capital gains, and proximity to friends, medical services, and shopping centres.

“Moving to a gated community means I won’t need to worry about gardening or cleaning the pool,” she says.

“It’ll give me more time to do my sewing projects and more security enabling me to travel.”

She sees the $205 weekly site rental as a fair trade for the ease of maintenance and lifestyle benefits.

“It’s comparable to what I was paying at my old property when you factor in the extra costs I no longer have,” she says.

Initially hesitant about living in a close community, Lee found reassurance after spending time at her mother’s over-50s resort, realising she could have the best of both worlds.

“Once you’re inside your own home you don’t see or hear others living nearby,” she says.

“At the same time, I’m looking forward to meeting other like-minded people who may even share some of my interests.”

Boutique living with a social heart

With just 57 homes, Aliria on Dean is a boutique development that has been designed to feel intimate and approachable.

Shared amenities include a sundeck and pool, gym, pickleball court, community hall, and 5,000 sqm of open green space for casual interactions and recreation.

“Whether it’s joining a group trip, bumping into neighbours at the gym, or simply knowing someone nearby shares your interests, the emotional reassurance that comes with this lifestyle is incredibly powerful,” Coulter says.

Every home at Aliria on Dean includes two bedrooms plus a multipurpose room suitable for hobbies, guest stays, or a study for those who work from home.

The open-plan living areas flow onto a private alfresco or porch for indoor-outdoor living.

“For singles, that sense of personal space is balanced with thoughtful proximity to communal areas, helping strike the right balance between privacy and connection,” Coulter says.

“Importantly, every home is single-level, energy-efficient, and purpose-designed for ease of living now and into the future.”

More than a home – a place to belong

Community is at the heart of the Aliria on Dean philosophy.

“From the outset, we designed shared spaces that naturally bring people together,” Coulter explains.

“It’s not just about infrastructure; it’s the lifestyle that flows from it.”

This resident-driven approach means activities grow organically with the community–creating a lifestyle that’s shaped by those who live it.

“The residents themselves form interest-based clubs or run a variety of activities or simple casual gatherings, which give residents as much or as little social interaction as they want,” Coulter says.

“It’s these moments–simple, genuine, and unplanned–that build real relationships and make the community feel like home.”

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