What the AFL ladder would look like if it was based on property price growth

If there’s one thing that could rival AFL as Australia’s most popular spectator sport, it’s the property market.

More than 8 million Aussies flock to AFL matches every year, but judging by the crowds at auctions and open homes around the country, the game of buying and selling real estate could give our national sport a run for its money.

So what would the AFL ladder look like if teams were ranked for property price growth rather than on-field performance?

Exclusive PropTrack data shows how each team would be placed this year, based on how rapidly home prices have grown in the past 12 months.

The data shows that the finals series wouldn’t look all that different to the real thing, with five of the top eight teams vying for a grand final berth this year also outperforming for property price growth.

The Brisbane Lions would have clinched the minor premiership in the home price comp, with 9.6% growth in home values in the past year. They also put in a solid performance in the regular season this year, finishing in third place.

But the next strongest contender for the home price trophy posted a much better result for home price growth than on-field performance.

The West Coast Eagles finished the regular season in last place with just one win and 22 losses, but a 9.3% rise in property values in WA puts the Eagles in second-place on the hypothetical home price table. 

Adelaide Crows, who won the minor premiership in actual football this year, have also been kicking goals in the property market, with a 9% annual uplift in values putting the team in third place on the home price growth ladder.

Port Adelaide rounded out the top four with slightly slower price growth of 8.6% – a much better result than how the team finished the regular season this year in 13th place with nine wins and 14 losses.

GWS Giants, Fremantle Dockers and Gold Coast Suns would be sitting in fifth, sixth and seventh place, respectively – close to where the teams finished up on the AFL ladder.

Rounding out the top eight for price growth was Western Bulldogs, who just missed out on a finals spot in the regular season this year.

The data analyses home price growth in the past 12 months across the geographical area each team traditionally represents.

For most Victorian teams, data is at the suburb level, except for Geelong Cats and Western Bulldogs which cover the Geelong and Melbourne – West SA4 regions respectively.

Data for Brisbane Lions and Adelaide Crows covers price movements at the Greater Capital City (GCCSA) level, West Coast Eagles data tracks price movements for Western Australia overall, Fremantle Dockers and Port Adelaide Power reflects data for their respective local government areas (LGA) and Gold Coast Suns uses data for its SA4 region.

For the two Sydney teams, the Swans and GWS Giants, the city has been split down the middle, with data for the Giants covering the west and the Swans covering the east.

Is there any correlation between on-field performance and property price growth?

While the top eight teams were broadly similar for both price growth and on-field performance, similarities also extended to the teams sitting at the bottom of the table.

Six of the 10 Victorian teams finished the regular season in the bottom half of the ladder this year, while in home price growth rankings, the bottom half of the ladder was entirely Victorian, with only the Bulldogs sitting in the top half.

Although the data shows some similarities between price growth and where teams are ranked on the AFL ladder, it’s unlikely that on-field performance is tied to property price growth, according to REA Group REA Group executive manager of economics Angus Moore. 

“It’s hard to see how AFL team performance and home prices would be strongly related,” he said.

“Instead, what we’re seeing here is the gap in home price performance over the past few years between Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide on the one hand and Melbourne and to a lesser extent Sydney on the other.”

Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia have been the strongest property markets in recent years, with relative affordability, population growth and high levels of investment supporting home price growth.

Meanwhile, property price growth in Melbourne has underperformed the rest of the nation in recent years — a result of population outflows, higher levels of home building and changed property tax settings — although the situation appears to be changing as demand and price growth picks up given Melbourne’s relative affordability.

Brisbane buyer’s agent Jamie Charman, a former ruckman for the Lions who won a premiership with the team in 2003, said property price growth might not be directly related to a team’s performance, but success on the sporting field could certainly lift spirits in the local area.

“I don’t think there’s a direct correlation, but it does change the mood within the town when your team is winning,” he said.

“There’s always a dramatic change if your team is on top of the ladder. The atmosphere is good and it brings a lot of positive energy.”

“When we won a premiership, the whole town was buzzing.”

He said Brisbane’s outperformance in price growth was more likely related to population inflows and increased investment from other parts of the country, rather than how well the Lions were playing.

“I’m really noticing more buyers than ever from the southern states,” he said. “We’re seeing so much investment coming in from down south.”

Sport and property prices may not be completely unrelated. Research from the UK shows stadium construction can have a positive effect on property prices in the surrounding area, although there are also examples of negative effects on prices due to noise and traffic.

While the data shows AFL and the property market happened to share some of the same winners this year, the reality is that strong price growth in the regions at the top of the table was largely due to broader economic factors rather than on-field success.

The post What the AFL ladder would look like if it was based on property price growth appeared first on realestate.com.au.