Think the 2025 market is a claw machine? Here’s how to win anyway

I love taking my son to the arcade, sharing with him the games I grew up playing and the workarounds that can help improve his odds of winning. On one such trip, we spent too much time and money trying to win a prize out of the arcade’s claw machine.

It got me thinking about how agents so frequently rely on luck rather than the harder, steadier work of building a self-sustaining real estate business. Here are seven ways that a claw machine is similar to today’s real estate market — and why you can still win.

The machine is rigged, but not unbeatable

While claw machines offer bright lights and colorful prizes, the odds of winning the plushie you want are generally stacked against you. It feels that way in the real estate market right now, where inventory is tight (except where it’s not), interest rates are unpredictable, the economy is changeable, buyers are cautious and sellers are stubborn.

While that may mean the wins don’t come as often or as easily as they did in 2020 and 2021, those agents who adapt their strategy can still win. Keeping in touch with your sphere of influence, focusing on a productive niche, shifting your marketing strategy — all of these things and more can improve your performance.

You need precision, not just luck

You know that weak, random attempts at the claw machine get you nowhere fast. The same goes for sloppy, intermittent prospecting, lazy pricing or hope-and-a-prayer marketing of your listings.

Instead, focus on making data-driven decisions. Use tech platforms to target high-potential clients. Roleplay to fine-tune client conversations and negotiation skills. Become better at the basics so that you can improve every interaction.

Sometimes you have to let go and reset

Sometimes, you’re trying to grab the wrong prize in the claw machine, going in again and again after the one that’s positioned perfectly to avoid capture.

If you’re chasing bad leads or wasting your time with unrealistic sellers, you’re after the wrong prize. Drop it and refocus, reassessing your pipeline regularly so that you’re focused on the prizes that are primed to pay off.

Control what you can

You may not be able to control the claw, but you can control your timing and positioning. Sometimes, that’s all it takes to turn your luck around and grab the big prize.

Now is the time for agents to double down on their differentiators, brush up on buyer agreements and consultations, practice expectation-setting with sellers, improve the way they market their listings and lean into smart staging strategies. When you increase the number of factors you can control, you set yourself up for big wins.

Every attempt teaches you something

Whether you win or lose, every “grab” offers insights and teaches you something about how your particular claw machine works. Similarly, every offer, every listing pitch, every negotiation teaches you something, if you’re willing to learn.

Implement systems that allow you to debrief after every client interaction. What talking points worked and what didn’t? Where did you lose them in the conversation? What kind of energy did you come in with and how did it mesh with theirs? Refine what didn’t work to improve your odds next time.

The calm player has the advantage

If you get the “yips,” acting out of frustration over missed attempts, you’ll never land that big prize. Similarly, panic, frustration and chasing shiny objects can lead to career-ending burnout and financial instability that tanks your business.

Ignore the noise and implement the best practices that you know are getting results. When you stay calm and engaged, you’ll see the angle others miss and move in for the win.

Tech is the hidden magnet

The secret to claw machines often lies in a hidden boost — a magnetic or timing mechanism that improves the machine’s odds of keeping its treasure. Find your own boost in a well-maintained and consistently updated CRM, expert AI tools that speed up and simplify your marketing and operations, and digital platforms that bring you a steady stream of warm leads.

Automation isn’t just about creating leverage for added volume. It’s also about smarter timing and stronger targeting that helps you start out with better leads and a more effective value proposition.

Now, if you’re wondering why I’m thinking so much about claw machines, and if you’ve hung in there all the way to the end, stop by and see me at The Gathering, taking place June 8-11, 2025. There you can try your luck at our claw machine using the tips in this article, along with these additional pro tips:

Choose the right prize

Aim for objects that are:

• Near the top or on their side
• Not too heavy or oddly shaped
• Not too close to the glass or corners

Line it up perfectly

Use the joystick and camera angles to look from both the front and the side. The claw should be centered above the item — any tilt or off-center positioning reduces grip.

Troy Palmquist is the founder of HomeCode Advisors.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.

To contact the editor responsible for this piece: zeb@hwmedia.com.