Surprise Sydney area’s shock property price fall amid growth in rest of city

Auctioneer Thomas McGlynn (centre) calls bids on a Ryde home. Auction activity has been picking up – but not everywhere. Picture Thomas Lisson

Sydney’s housing market is flying — but one major region has been left in the dust.

The Central Coast has emerged as Greater Sydney’s shock property weak spot, with values slipping into reverse even as the rest of the city powers ahead.

Fresh PropTrack figures show Sydney-wide home prices climbed about 1.5 per cent over the past three months, which would have added more than $10,000 to the average cost of a home.

The growth was capped off by a 0.7 per cent citywide rise in August, but the Coast has gone the other way.

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Average values fell 0.38 per cent over the three-month period, a surprising feat given that interest rates dropped over this time – normally a factor that stimulates housing demand.

The Central Coast was the only major region across Greater Sydney to go backwards, a stunning reversal for an area that was one of the hottest markets during the Covid property boom.

Sydney’s southwest, which includes markets like Liverpool and Fairfield, led the city for growth with a blistering 3.25 per cent quarterly surge.

Other strong growth markets were the eastern suburbs, Canterbury-Bankstown region, Sutherland Shire and northern beaches.

Given that many of these areas are coastal markets attracting a similar type of buyer prioritising “lifestyle”, The Central Coast appears to be getting left behind.

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Wamberal aerial shot. Central Coast real estate. Picture: McGrath Terrigal.

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Experts say the difference comes down to who is buying. The city’s upswing has been somewhat fuelled by investors, who accounted for nearly 40 per cent of buying activity, loan data showed.

Upgraders chasing bigger homes have also been a prominent force in the market, with many selling up their former homes for big windfalls and channelling the funds into their new purchases.

These groups have not been active across The Central Coast as they have in other markets.

This may change in the coming months as home price growth in the region has a history of lagging the rest of the market: prices often go up there after a long run of increases in Sydney’s heartland suburbs.

Source: PropTrack

Three rate cuts this year, in February, June and in August, have brought more buyers into the Greater Sydney market as a whole.

REA Group economist Eleanor Creagh noted prices were “re-accelerating”.

She said this pattern look likely to continue into spring. “Looking ahead, the combination of lower interest rates, increased borrowing capacities and improved sentiment is expected to continue to drive demand,” Ms Creagh said.

“Constrained new housing supply, strong population growth and the expansion of the Home Guarantee Scheme from October will also maintain upward pressure on prices.

“As we enter spring, the housing market appears poised for another leg higher, albeit strengthening in some capitals while normalising in others.”

Scott Kuru, CEO of property advisory group Freedom Property Investors, said housing supply was failing to keep pace with demand.

“Even with affordability stretched and interest rates still well above the ultra-low levels of the pandemic, buyers are active and confidence is rebounding,” he said.

“Investors should take note: not only are values rising, but rents are also re-accelerating after a softer patch.

“With demand outstripping supply, both prices and rents are heading one way — and that’s up.”

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