Overseas arrivals into Australia fuel new concerns over housing supply

Australia has recorded another month of record long-term overseas arrivals – fresh off the back of announcements that the country is falling further behind critical housing requirements for the coming years.

New ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for May 2025 released Tuesday showed net permanent and long-term arrivals in May 2025 were 33,230.

This was the highest May net arrival number on record, surpassing the previous record of 31,310 in 2023 by 6 per cent, according to analysis of the figures by policy think tank the Institute of Public Affairs.

Net permanent and long-term arrivals in the year to May 2025 were 245,890 – also the highest on record, IPA analysis revealed. Many of the arrivals were international students.

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It should be noted that these figures are different to the ABS measure of permanent migration intake, but do point to the amount of strain being put on the housing market – especially the rental market.

The figures come as housing approval data indicated the country was already 55,000 homes behind target just one year into the National Housing Accord plan to build 1.2 million new homes by the end of the decade.

The shortfall will mean recent arrival numbers could put further pressure on the current supply of housing, experts said.

IPA deputy executive director David Wild said recent migration was “excessive” and was “exacerbating the housing and rental crises being experienced by Australians and new migrants alike”.

“Migration has played a significant role in pummelling Australia’s economic productivity (and) creating extended periods of negative per capita economic growth,” Mr Wild said.

Mr Wild’s comments have followed leaked Treasury advice showing the federal government’s National Housing Accord target of building 1.2 million homes between 2024 and 2029 will not be met.

“Despite the fact that the federal government has failed to deliver on a single target under its Accord, it continues to ramp up migration intakes, at a time when the nation is simply not building the houses it needs to accommodate a rapidly rising population,” Mr Wild said.

“Migration-induced demand injected into the housing market, combined with sluggish supply – due to red tape and competition from bloated government infrastructure projects – have created a perfect storm of too many new people and not enough new homes.”

PPD Real Estate economist Dr Diaswait Mardiasmo said overseas long-term arrivals figures underlined why the planning system for new housing needed to be turbocharged.

“Projects are taking quite a while to be approved, due to red tape and other factors, and still quite expensive to ensure that it comes out of the ground,” she said.

“These figures stress the need for more housing, and correct type of housing at that, to accommodate more people into the country.”

Dr Mardiasmo said renters would be most affected by the influx of new arrivals. “Most international migrants who come to the country are likely to be renters – therefore this will put more stress on the rental market,” she said.

Mr Wild clarified that the issue was down to numbers and how prepared the country was to accommodate growth.

“Australia is a tolerant and welcoming society. However, migration intake must be properly planned,” he said.

The IPA pointed to the federal government’s net overseas migration budget forecast for FY25 (335,000 arrivals).

The think tank claimed this figure has already been exceeded by 88,990 net permanent and long-term arrivals, with another month of data still to be published.

Mr Wild said there would be economic implications: “Australians are already struggling with rapidly rising house prices and rents.”

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