Nationwide shortfall of 200,000 homes despite recovery | HIA

Australia’s biggest builders are firing again, but experts warn the nation will still fall 200,000 homes short of its target. Picture: Jason Edwards

Australia’s biggest builders are firing again, lifting new home starts by more than 11 per cent, but experts warn the nation will still fall nearly 200,000 homes short of its housing target.

The nation’s top 100 builders delivered 64,407 homes in 2024/25, the strongest result since the pandemic-driven boom.

Detached homes rose slightly, semi-detached projects lifted 24 per cent and multi-unit starts surged almost 40 per cent, according to the Housing Industry Association’s annual Housing 100 report.
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The rebound marked the first clear sign of recovery after several years of decline, but Housing Institute of Australia economists said the nation remained on track to miss the Albanese government’s 1.2 million homes target.

HIA chief economist Tim Reardon said the report showed resilience returning to the industry after a turbulent period of cost blowouts and builder collapses.

“This year saw more homes built, more builders expanding their activity, and growth across detached, semi-detached and multi-unit segments,” Mr Reardon said.
“It shows Australia’s largest builders are ready to lead the next phase of housing growth.”

HIA senior economist Tom Devitt says higher-density projects must accelerate to meet housing demand.

But HIA senior economist Tom Devitt said the figures masked deeper issues.

“Victoria is leading the nation in new home starts, but the numbers hide the fact that apartments and townhouses, the very homes needed to improve affordability, are still lagging badly,” Mr Devitt said.

He warned the government’s housing target would not be met without a much stronger push on higher-density projects.

“At best, we’ll deliver just over one million homes by mid-2029 — almost a 20 per cent shortfall on the target,” he said.
“The demand is there, now governments need to clear the blockages so builders can keep up.”

New estates on Melbourne’s fringe are shaping the future of housing supply.

“Population growth is running higher than last decade. That means even 1.2 million new homes may not be enough, the demand is there, now the policy and supply side need to catch up.”

The Housing 100 was led nationally by Metricon, which retained its number one position for the 10th year.

The builder recorded 4015 builds across Victoria, Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia — its first growth in site starts since 2019/20.

Metricon chief executive Brad Duggan marked a decade on top as Australia’s largest builder.

Metricon chief executive Brad Duggan said the milestone reflected the trust of more than 48,000 Australians who had built with the company over the past decade.

“Ten years on top is a milestone that speaks to our focus on quality, affordability and customer trust,” Mr Duggan said.

But Mr Duggan warned the supply pipeline was slowing.

“Two or three years ago, we saw around 16,000 lots released across greenfield estates, this year it’s closer to 8000,” he said.

Housing starts rebounded strongly in 2024/25, but remain below target. Source: HIA

Multi-unit builds surged almost 40 per cent, with townhouses up 24 per cent. Source: HIA

“That halving reflects planning delays and a push towards higher density.

“Families want backyards and communities, government should be enabling that choice, not restricting it.”

AHB Group was the standout mover in this year’s rankings, climbing to fifth nationally with almost 2900 builds.

The Victorian-based company overtook Metricon as the state’s largest builder, driven by its medium-density arm SOHO Living.

AHB Group director Pas Garofalo says families still want backyards and affordable homes.

Director Pas Garofalo said the group’s strategy was focused on affordability, but warned government policies risked pushing the market too far toward high-rise.

“Victoria is a house-and-land state. People still want a backyard,” Mr Garofalo said.
“But greenfield releases are slowing, and towers aren’t automatically cheaper.
In metro and regional corridors we can still deliver family homes from the mid-$600,000s. A balanced pipeline needs both.”

Despite the rebound, Australia remains on track to miss its 1.2 million homes target by nearly 200,000.

Mr Garofalo said demand was strongest among everyday families.
“Townhouses and single-storey homes on smaller blocks are what’s affordable. That’s where the market is moving, and that’s why we’ve grown,” he said.

State results from the Housing 100 revealed Victoria accounted for about 20,000 builds, nearly a third of national activity.

New South Wales and Queensland each delivered around 14,000, while Western Australia produced almost 10,000 and South Australia about 5300.

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