Housing accord now ‘by 2030’ according to minister’s X post

Federal Housing Minister Clare O’Neil made the X post on April 26. Picture: Jason Edwards

Labor appears to have quietly changed a timeline on one of its key housing initiatives, just days before the nation casts its vote.

An April 26 video post on X by Federal Housing Minister Clare O’Neil appeared to give the government up to an extra 18 months to deliver the 1.2 million home builds laid out in the national housing accord.

The video, which begins with a title page reading ‘What’s Labor doing on housing?’ goes on to say that the government is “building 1.2 million new homes by 2030”.

The only problem is that the national housing accord was announced to cover a five-year period from 1 July 2024, meaning the homes would need to be built by 30 June 2029 in order for the goal to be achieved.

A screenshot from the video posted on 26 April from the X account of Clare O’Neil MP.

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SQM Research director Louis Christopher spotted the post on Saturday morning.

“It seems Labor has shifted the goalposts on the housing accord,” Mr Christopher said. “They originally said the five years was from 1 July 2024, which would take them through to 30 June 2029, but based on what they’ve said here, they’ve now actually given themselves another 18 months, because if they say ‘by 2030’, that could be the end of 2030.”

Minister O’Neil’s X post appeared an official campaign communication, coming with an end note that the video was “authorised P. Erickson, ALP, Canberra”.

“I haven’t seen any official literature, so potentially they’re trying to do this in a very sneaky way and not really do anything formally to say ‘we’ve changed the goalposts’,” Mr Christopher said.

“Where’s the transparency and saying ‘you know, things have come up, we haven’t quite made it, we need to reset this goal’? Instead, what they’re just doing is quietly putting it through some of their marketing literature, that this is now happening.”

Clare O’Neil says nothing has changed. Picture: NewsWire/Ian Currie

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When contacted for clarification, a spokesman for Minister O’Neil said the targets had not changed, but rather that it was easier to be “colloquial” when communicating messaging to the general public.

“This is a beat up,” the spokesman said. “We have said the target will be reached by the end of the decade a number of times,” adding that people “tend to think in calendar years” rather than financial years.

“If we said it would be done by 2029, people would bring the target forward to January 2029.

“The target will be reached six months before 2030.”

It has been well publicised that the housing accord is tracking well behind where it needs to be after more than nine months. ABS data shows housing completions totalled fewer than 45,000 in the first quarter of the accord, which was well below the 60,000-home quarterly target. The December quarter yielded 45,167 completions.

Mr Christopher believes it will soon get worse.

SQM Research director Louis Christopher

“You need to look at also, what’s under construction, or commencements,” he said. “Dwellings being commenced (indicates the number of) dwellings likely to be completed. For the December ‘24 quarter, the most recent data we had was 41,911 dwellings commenced in that quarter. That means it’s likely we’re going to be seeing dwellings completed fall from these 45,000 levels.

“The run rate required each year is 240,000 dwellings to hit their target. What happens is, it’s like a cricket match. The more you’re behind on the run rate required, the more that run rate required goes up.

“The maximum we’ve ever built in a year is just under 240,000. That’s the maximum ever. The way they’re going, the run rate required is going to be well over 240,000 a year if they’re going to hit their target. I think they’ve realised this and this is one of the reasons why they’re moving the goalposts.”

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Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at a campaign rally. Picture: Jason Edwards

March research by the Property Council of Australia revealed that on its current trajectory, the housing accord would fall short of its 1.2 million target by some 462,000 homes.

Property Council chief executive Mike Zorbas told this masthead at the time that “missing the target by 462,000 new homes by July 2029 would set off a housing affordability time bomb”.

“Boosting housing supply is the only long-term, sustainable way in which we can boost affordability of homes to buy and to rent,” he added.

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