Grim future for Queensland renters past 2032 Olympics

Soaring rents will tighten their stranglehold on the state well past the 2032 Olympic Games, with bombshell data revealing tenants in about 250 Queensland house or unit markets will be paying over $1000 a week within the decade.

An exclusive analysis of PropTrack market trends data showed the average renter in Greater Brisbane would pay an extra $200 a week by 2035, on the back of persistent razor-thin vacancy rates and a rising population.

Average rent for a house in Brisbane would climb from $650 to $852, and for units, from $640 to $839.

$600/week: 404/60 Blamey St, Kelvin Grove

A suburb breakdown showed tenants in many city postcodes would pay far more, topping out at $1572 in inner-city New Farm and Bulimba, then Ascot ($1524), Hendra, Pullenvale, Brookfield, and Tennyson (all $1441), and Teneriffe ($1409).

Outside Brisbane, the beachside strips of the Gold and Sunshine Coast were forecast for even bigger rent hikes, to between $1800 and $1900 in Broadbeach, Bundall, Tallebudgera, Tallai, Clear Island Waters and Castaways Beach.

A total of 244 house or unit markets were forecast to record rents of $1000 or higher.

The analysis was based on a varied Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast, easing from 3.6 per cent in 2026, as predicted by SQM Research, to 2.6 per cent by 2029.

This nuanced approach accounted for the past decade’s unusual economic conditions, with skewed migrations rates through the pandemic.

SQM Research director Louis Christopher

A flat 3.6 per cent CPI forecast revealed a worst-case scenario of a whopping 400-plus markets with rents at $1000 or more a week, up to $2065 in Broadbeach.

The data also revealed the cheapest post-Games markets, with rent for a unit in Kooralbyn, Logan still under $400 in 10 years.

Units in Darra in the city’s west were next, at $524 a week, up from $400 in 2025.

Across the regions, homes in Ayr, Blackall, Miles and Barcaldine were all forecast to rent for under $450.

SQM Research founder Louis Christopher said larger rental markets historically tracked closely with the CPI, nearing 2.6 per cent prior to the pandemic in line with the Reserve Bank’s target range for inflation.

$650/week: 644 Innisfail Japoon Rd, Currajah

He forecast rents to increase by about $10,000 a year by 2035 across Australia’s major capitals, despite 180,000 new dwellings expected to be completed nationwide in 2026.

“If you have the opportunity to get in as a first-home buyer you should seriously look at it,” Mr Christopher said.

Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ) CEO Antonia Mercorella said Queensland was the fastest growing state economy, attracting strong international and interstate migration.

“With an Olympics on the horizon and related supporting infrastructure brought forward, Queensland’s reputation as a great place to live is only expected to grow,” she said.

While sustained government support would ideally help transition more people into home ownership, the expansion of Build to Rent (BTR) schemes could significantly boost housing in high-population areas, with Queensland home to more renters than the national average.

REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella

“The BTR model could make quite a serious impact on rental market supply, helping to house a multitude of tenants and their families, and certainly at a faster pace than what the development of individual freestanding homes is able to do,” Ms Mercorella said.

“Over the next decade we could also see some significant societal shifts to embrace larger household formation, multi-generational living, greater suburban housing density, and more housing diversity – including smaller properties rather than the popular ‘McMansions’ Australia has become known for.”

The grim rental outlook was echoed by Cotality’s Housing Affordability Report, released this week, showing the share of income needed to rent hit a record high in 2025.

$510/week: 9 Outlook St, Waterford West

MORE NEWS

Qld property market to surge with double-digit price hikes for 2026

Insurer’s warning after $27m hit from hail and lightning

Big question stopping refinancers

Cotality head of research Eliza Owens said both buying and renting had reached “unsustainable levels for many Australians”, while massive capital gains had widened a growing divide between property owners and non-owners.

Nationally, tenants were now putting 33.4 per cent of their income towards rent, placing them in the realms of “rent stress”, and significantly exceeding the 20-year average.

Regional Queensland had been particularly hard hit, with 39 per cent of income needed to rent.

Median rents in the regions rose 7.6 per cent in the year to September, against a comparatively small 2.6 per cent lift in income.

Ms Owen said the sharp decline is rental affordability was driven by surging post-pandemic demand, fuelled by record-low interest rates and high migration rates, coupled with a critical shortage of housing supply due to ongoing construction challenges and planning delays.

$1,500/week: 50 Macrozamia Dr, Clagiraba

“In short, the past five years combined extraordinary demand drivers with supply constraints, creating an extraordinary boom in both home values and rents,” she said.

Property Investors Council of Australia chair Ben Kingsley advised landlords to hike rents by 4 to 5 per cent while vacancy rates remained low.

“If governments continue to increase taxes and increase the costs, we will go even higher to recommend 5-6 per cent,” Mr Kingsley said.

“And we think that’s a very reasonable response to get a return on investment that we are not getting at the moment.”

PICA chair Ben Kingsley advised investors to up rents to cover their costs

PICA’s 2025 survey found 65 per cent of members had passed on less than 10 per cent of added costs they had faced in the past year, with Mr Kingsley warning investors would eventually sell up if yields dropped too low, further starving the market of supply.

Ms Mercorella said: “Rents will always reflect market conditions however they are also closely tied to the residential sale market and individual investor’s position to cover the mortgage and absorb associated holding costs.”

The post Grim future for Queensland renters past 2032 Olympics appeared first on realestate.com.au.