Geelong’s next $1m suburbs, emerging areas revealed

New analysis has revealed predictions for median house prices in Geelong suburbs in 2030.

Seven new million dollar suburbs and two with a median house price above $2m would emerge in Geelong as new analysis predicts what home prices could be in 2030.

The PropTrack predictions cements the rise of coastal towns as the region’s most expensive areas to buy a home but reserves the pinnacle for the inner west Geelong suburb of Manifold Heights.

The PropTrack modelling uses the past five years’ growth in each suburb on the next five years.

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The renovated five-bedroom home at 4 Purrumbete Ave, Manifold Heights, is on the market with $3.295m price hopes.

Geelong West, Highton, Geelong, Wandana Heights, Portarlington, Ocean Grove and Bannockburn would reach $1m median house prices in 2030, the analysis shows.

Norlane would remain the region’s cheapest market for houses, but with a median price of $593,000, while the ripple effect would see suburbs such as Herne Hill, Hamlyn Heights breach $900,000.

Manifold Heights is one of Geelong’s smallest suburbs but benefits from proximity to Newtown’s college precinct, with a single-dwelling covenant that caps the number of homes.

A $1.26m median house price could balloon to $2.2m by 2030 if the 76 per cent growth trajectory is achieved.

While it’s an unlikely outcome, the analysis underlines how renovations, extensions and rebuilds have improved values in the suburb where block sizes are typically bigger.

The Californian bungalow at 128 Verner St, Geelong, goes to auction on Saturday with $1.1m to $1.2m price hopes after a complete renovation and extension.

The five-bedroom house at 37 Cara Rd, Highton, sold for $1.5m recently. The home offers city views and is close to the Barwon River.

Buxton, Newtown agent Ben Riddle said a lot of people have capitalised on the growth in Manifold Heights, but a $2m median house price was a “highly ambitious” target.

He said a few big sales can dramatically skew the suburb, but there are a lot of things going its way, especially the proximity to private schools and shopping.

“We’ve found that people have been happy to stay in Manifold Heights because the infrastructure between Minerva Rd and Shannon Ave has got a lot better with a lot more offerings,” Mr Riddle said.

“While I feel Geelong has a really good profile and growth is almost assured with interest rates coming down, the rate of growth will be tempered, especially in the next year, by the fact our state government’s got heavy levies on property owners.”

The four-bedroom house at 35 James Cook Drive, Wandana Heights, sold recently for $980,000.

The modelling offers more balanced predictions for most suburbs across Geelong as the region ends a boom-and-bust cycle that saw price growth reach unsustainable levels on the back of a Covid exodus from Melbourne before rising interest rates caused a hard correction that leaves the market 11 per cent below the last peak.

Geelong buyers advocate Tony Slack said the fact the data balances rises and falls means most of the predictions were plausible.

“Our market is always slow and steady. It might plateau, then have a slight increase, then plateau. Very rarely are there any troughs – after (the) Pyramid (collapse) maybe, but even through the global financial crisis we didn’t see any.”

The five-bedroom house at 17 The Avenue, Ocean Grove, sold recently for $3.355m.

The modelling reveals moderate growth suburbs may offer more stable opportunities for buyers, including Geelong, Highton and Belmont, the latter two which are Geelong’s biggest markets for established houses and where unit values are also rising.

Emerging suburbs that have lower house prices but show significant growth include St Albans Park, Corio and Winchelsea.

PropTrack senior economist Angus Moore said home prices were expected to rise this year on the back of falling interest rates boosting buyers’ borrowing capacities.

“However, we’re certainly not expecting to see anything like the pace of growth that we saw in 2021 when prices grew incredibly quickly,” he said.

Hayeswinckle director Michelle Winckle said the draw of the Barwon River to families buying in Highton would become more valuable the further Geelong’s urban boundaries expanded.

The four-bedroom house at 6 Knight Ave, Herne Hill, sold for $1.2m.

The four-bedroom house at 31-33 Langer Drive, St Albans Park, sold for $792,000 recently.

“It’s always going to appeal to families. You’ve got larger blocks, you’re close to schools and you’re on the side near the Barwon River,” Ms Winckle said.

Buxton Highton agent David Gray said it’s wasn’t overreach to expect Highton could be a $1m suburb in 2030, and Belmont at $850,000.

“Particularly when you look at some of the more recent results of $1.5m to high $1.8m not just up in the Province estate, but in old Highton.”

A suburb such as St Albans Park often escapes attention because it’s an outlying area, but deserves to see strong growth, Mr Slack said.

“There are good, well-built homes, good land, good streets. There is so much to like in St Albans Park – it seems that because it’s an outlying suburb it doesn’t enter the conversation as much as others.”

What Geelong home values could be in 2030

Source: PropTrack

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