Forecast shock: Surfers Paradise home prices to hit $9m by 2030

Surfers Paradise could become a $9 million suburb by 2030 if the extraordinary growth of the past five years were to continue.

New modelling by PropTrack, based on trends since the pandemic boom, reveals just how far Gold Coast property prices might climb unless the market moderates within the next five years.

The forecast projects values more than doubling across some of the city’s most popular beachside pockets as well as the most affordable unit markets.

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Houses in the Glitter Strip capital of Surfers Paradise were tipped to soar from the current median of $4m to a staggering $9m by 2030 — an increase of 126 per cent.

A similar surge in blue-chip Mermaid Beach would see homebuyers fork out $6.46m, up from $3.2m now.

The modelling identifies 16 Coast suburbs where median house prices could top $3m, including Broadbeach, Bonogin, Miami, Palm Beach, Benowa and Reedy Creek.

In traditionally more affordable areas like Nerang, Southport, and Labrador, unit prices are projected to rise to about $1m.

23 Diplacus Drive, Palm Beach is for sale in the popular suburb

An apartment in Labrador, for example, would climb from $685,000 to $1.29m — up 88 per cent.

Statewide, the current typical home price of $838,000 across all houses and units would surge 84 per cent, or $689,572, to $1.53m.

PropTrack senior economist Angus Moore said growth would continue across the nation’s property markets, albeit not at the bullish pace recorded post-Covid.

While the projections were hypothetical, they underscored the dramatic shift in property values since 2020.

“Given how challenging housing affordability is at the moment — last year was, on our measures, the worst in at least three decades — that’s obviously favouring more affordable areas,” Mr Moore said.

The price of a unit in Nerang would rise to $1m, if recent growth continues

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He said demand had shifted toward cheaper capital cities and outer-suburban pockets.

“Queensland’s been one of the big beneficiaries over the past five years. It’s seen a lot of interstate migration, particularly from New South Wales and Victoria… and that’s driven incredible growth, especially in regional Queensland.”

The Gold Coast’s enduring appeal, bolstered by lifestyle factors, ongoing infrastructure developments, and economic opportunities, continues to drive demand, according to local agents.

First National Surfers Paradise agent Russell Rollington said the $9m projection for the Glitter Strip capital was “an ambitious estimate”, but “definitely possible” given the performance of the past five years.

Labrador has emerged as another property hotspot

“Prime absolute beachfront and waterfront properties are leading the charge and they are only becoming more sought after as the population increases,” Mr Rollington said.

He recently sold a Surfers Paradise sub-penthouse off-market for $7m — more than double its 2020 sale price — to a Sydney buyer who had holidayed on the Coast for 25 years and decided to make the move fulltime after retiring.

“Demand is still stronger than supply — we can’t see that changing anytime soon.

“Genuine buyers are keen to get their foot in today as most feel prices will only continue to increase. I speak with buyers all the time from the other states and overseas, and they say it is their dream to move to the Gold Coast, so Surfers Paradise has a bright future.”

Apartments within the Jewel towers at Surfers Paradise are selling for between $1.6m and $7m

Buyers agent Lauren Jones said the modelling was based on “an unprecedented property boom” which was unlikely to be repeated.

“But then again, back in the day people were paying $20,000 for a house and never could’ve imagined a house costing even $100,000,” she said.

Ms Jones said the projections didn’t stack up against income data. For example, SQM Research pegged weekly family income in Logan Central south of Brisbane at $1,423 by 2026, while estimated repayments on an 80 per cent loan at 6.5 per cent interest would total about $1,804 per week, based on the PropTrack price forecast.

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