Aus banks slash interest rates early as RBA showdown looms

Aussie homeowners are set for repayment relief with a third 2025 rate cut almost a certainty.

Seven Aussie banks have slashed interest rates early in a race to beat rivals ahead of next week’s Reserve Bank decision, as a drop in inflation fuels a rate-cutting competition.

Canstar’s database found seven lenders have moved on rates since last Monday, three of whom did so just days after shock CPI figures revealed trimmed mean inflation fell again for the second quarter in a row to well within the RBA’s target band (2.7 per cent) – a level considered a key trigger for cheaper lending.

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Current big four bank cash rate forecasts. Source: Canstar

Canstar.com.au data insights director Sally Tindall said that all but confirmed Australia’s third official 2025 cash rate cut would happen on August 12.

All four big banks – CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ – have predicted that RBA’s next move will be August 12 by 0.25 percentage points, but in the days since inflation figures were released a week ago, three lenders have already jumped the gun.

A Canstar spokesperson said between July 30 (when inflation data was released) and yesterday two lenders cut at least one variable home loan rate – Auswide Bank and Up – while “one lender cut its lowest fixed rate – Bank of China”.

Among the lowest variable rates brought in just before the inflation data was that of Police Credit Union dropping to 4.99pc for owner-occupiers – a shock figure that heralded the start of the lowest variable rate in two years across the country.

All up since last Monday seven lenders have moved rates lower – Auswide Bank and Up for variables, while for fixed it was G & C Mutual Bank, Macquarie Bank, The Mutual Bank, Unity Bank, and Bank of China.

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Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall believes inflation figures “all but confirmed” an August 12 rate cut. Picture: Tim Hunter.

“There were a few other lenders that moved fixed rates in the days prior to CPI figures, including Macquarie Bank and The Mutual Bank, which has the equal-lowest fixed rate at 4.94 per cent for two and three years.”

A 0.25pp drop in interest rates by either their lender or RBA would see a $90 fall in minimum monthly repayments for an owner-occupier with a $600,000 debt and 25 years remaining on their loan (to $3,703/mth).

Someone with a $750,000 loan and 25 years left would drop $113 to $4,628, while a $1m home loan minimum repayment would go to $6,171 off a fall of $150.

The figures assume the borrower is an average variable owner-occupier paying principal and interest.

ABS Quarterly CPI – annual movement – is the final piece in the August puzzle for RBA. Source: Canstar.

“While an RBA cut looks to be a near-certainty, if you’ve got a mortgage, don’t bank on any extra cash until it lands in your bank account,” Ms Tindall said.

“The RBA has shown it doesn’t dance to the beat of market expectations — it’s the one steering the ship.”

“Banks are also at the helm of your mortgage and while we expect the big banks to step up to the plate and pass the next cut on in full, there’s no guarantee every lender will do this.”

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