2026 mortgage compliance trends show staffing strains, regulatory risks

Ncontracts, a provider of compliance, risk and vendor management solutions for the financial services industry, released a new survey Tuesday that examines how institutions are managing evolving compliance expectations in 2026.

The survey, “The Future of Compliance: Benchmarking the People, Processes, and Pressures Shaping Compliance in 2026,” included responses from 183 financial institutions across various asset sizes, charters and geographies.

Ncontracts found that leadership support is rising at the compliance level, with 82% of respondents saying they’re satisfied with board and management backing, while 74% are satisfied with their institution’s compliance culture.

More than half (56%) reported stronger integration of compliance into policies, procedures and training since 2021.

Nearly 40% of institutions operate with one or two compliance professionals, while 25% of firms with $1 billion to $10 billion in assets have similarly small teams. Meanwhile, 64% expect budgets to remain flat or shrink in the next 12 to 18 months.

Experience gaps are growing. While most compliance staff are highly experienced, many are nearing retirement. At roughly one in four institutions, 25% of personnel may retire within five years, and 9% of institutions risk losing more than half their compliance team.

Regulatory uncertainty is the top compliance risk at 38%, followed by fair lending (33%), limited resources (30%) and staff training (30%). Traditional risks such as Bank Secrecy Act/Anti-Money Laundering rules (25%) and cybersecurity (16%) have declined from their 2021 peaks.

The study also identified a technological divide. Manual compliance processes generate seven times more examiner concerns and four times lower staff satisfaction. Only 32% report no use of artificial intelligence, while 26% are exploring or piloting AI solutions.

“What we’re seeing is compliance evolving into a strategic function that influences everything from risk culture to boardroom decision-making,” said Michael Berman, founder and CEO of Ncontracts. “Yet compliance teams are being asked to do more with the same resources, creating both challenges and opportunities for institutions willing to invest in modernization and talent development.”