Adelaide’s sellers’ market looks likely to continue throughout spring and into summer, one expert has predicted, as this year’s series of rate cuts, population inflows and the expanded Home Guarantee Scheme bolsters demand.

REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh made the prediction as PropTrack’s November Home Price Index, released today, revealed Adelaide combined dwelling prices climbed 1.2 per cent over the past month – the highest in the nation – to an $880,000 median.

This was double the national capital city average monthly growth of 0.6 per cent.

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The growth rate in regional SA, which has been the nation’s standout performer in recent years, has slowed and sat at 0.6 per cent for the month – in line with the national regional average.

REA Group senior economist and report author Eleanor Creagh, said increased borrowing capacities, lower mortgage rates and improving sentiment were fuelling renewed competition, but the pattern of growth was shifting.

“Over the past year, Darwin, Hobart, Melbourne and Sydney have seen the fastest acceleration in annual gains with these previously softer markets regaining momentum,” she said.

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“In contrast, the pace of annual growth is easing from earlier highs in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, though prices are still at record levels and continue to rise briskly.

“All regional markets have slowed, except regional Victoria, narrowing regional market outperformance

REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh

Adelaide’s house price remains at its record high – up 1.3 per cent for the month to $957,000 – while metropolitan units have increased 0.32 per cent over the past month to $655,000.

Regionally, the median house price sits at $486,000, and the median unit price $423,000.

Over the past five years, metropolitan Adelaide’s combined dwelling price has increased by 91.41 per cent, while regional homes have increased by 96.62 per cent.

Ms Creagh said nationally, annual growth has lifted above the 30-year average, yet stretched affordability was a “handbrake” on growth, which remains well below the 20 to 30 per cent pace of past booms.

“Looking ahead, this year’s series of rate cuts, population inflows and the expanded Home

Guarantee Scheme will continue to bolster demand,” she said.

“With stock on market constrained and new supply challenged, conditions remain tilted toward sellers.

“The market appears set for further price gains throughout spring and into summer.”

Adelaide home values are up. Picture: Supplied by Knight Frank

“With stock on market constrained and new supply challenged, demand-side stimulus will intensify competition.

“The housing market is poised for further gains throughout spring, though the pace will vary across cities as momentum shifts.”

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According to the report, home values in the state’s outback area have increased over the past 12 months by 13.28 per cent to a $347,000 median, while dwellings in the state’s Barossa – Yorke – Mid North region have increased 12.39 per cent to a median of $489,000.

Finder’s head of consumer research Graham Cooke. Picture: Supplied

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said homeowners hoping for a rate cut in November would likely be disappointed, with 30 out of the 35 property experts it surveyed predicting the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold the cash rate at 3.60 per cent when it meets tomorrow.

“This time last month there was plenty of optimism for a rate cut in November – that’s largely evaporated,” he said.

“The RBA wants to see inflation sit somewhere between 2 and 3 per cent, and it just edged above the top threshold.

“The RBA will want to see that number trending down again before relieving any more cash rate pressure.”

The post Adelaide real estate: New data shows unexpected market shift appeared first on realestate.com.au.

The unsung hero of the housing market in 2025 has been the improvement in mortgage spreads, because without the spreads improving as much as they have, mortgage rates would not have gotten near 6% this year.

I forecast that mortgage spreads should improve by 0.27%-0.41% this year, from a 2.54% average in 2024, giving mortgage rates a better chance to move down toward the bottom end of my mortgage-rate forecast. Today, the improvement reached 0.42%, so let’s examine why this has been so significant and whether they can improve even more

Mortgage spreads

Why and how did I achieve my target level this year? As rate volatility compresses and the Fed’s rate-cut cycle continues, the mortgage spread should have improved by 0.27% to 0.41% this year.

Now that we’ve reached my optimal improvement for mortgage spreads in 2025, I want to remind everyone that we are still not back to normal: we still have some room to move lower over time. Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%. If today’s spreads were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would be 0.98% higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.52% to 0.32% lower than today’s level — which would mean mortgage rates between 5.76% and 5.96% today.

Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield

In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:

• Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.70%

Last week was Fed week, and a day before the Fed announcement, I wrote an article about how Fed Chair Jerome Powell tends to become hawkish, as other Fed members have, with the 10-year yield at yearly lows and mortgage rates near 6%. I also discussed this topic on this episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast with HousingWire Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler. And since we are getting a new Fed chair in 2026, we also did an episode about the next Fed chair being more favorable to housing, here.

Given all the drama with the Fed, the week wasn’t too bad. The 10-year yield closed the week at 4.08% and the 2025 bond market and mortgage rates aren’t acting like they did in 2024 when mortgage rates shot up toward 7% after the Fed lowered rates. Mortgage rates per Mortgage News Daily ended the week at 6.28%, 15 basis points away from the yearly low and Polly’s rate-lock data showed mortgage rates at 6.26%.

Purchase application data

We’ve had 13 weeks of testing the housing data with mortgage rates under 6.64%, which has been the key level in the past. Over the last 13 weeks, we have had 8 positive prints, 5 negative prints, and 13 straight weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth in purchase apps. Last week saw 5% growth week over week and 20% growth year over year. 

Earlier in the year, we saw healthy year-over-year growth, but the weekly data was choppy. The last 13 weeks have been the best of the year, but I would like to see 4 to 6 more weeks of positive week-to-week data. Usually, when rates increase, it does impact the weekly data for next week. 

Here is the weekly data for 2025 so far:

• 20 positive readings
• 16 negative readings
• 6 flat prints
• 39 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
• 26 consecutive weeks of double-digit growth year over year 

In our weekly Housing Market Tracker, the data has showed some volatility due to the holiday weekend and an AWS outage. As I mentioned last week, we would need two weeks to stabilize the data after these events. This week, the data ran its adjustment course, but I recommend treating both this week’s data and last week’s data with caution.

Last week, we observed an unusual increase in inventory, new listings and weekly pending home sales data, all of which were stronger than typical. This week, however, these figures have fallen more than usual. We anticipate returning to normal levels next week.

Weekly housing inventory data

Inventory growth declined last week. We will get a more accurate read as the previous two weeks were a bit wild. The growth rate of inventory peaked at around 33% this year; now it stands at 16.45%. Inventory probably fell more than it normally would have week to week, as last week’s increase was too high as well. Even though the inventory growth rate has cooled down, it’s been a very positive story for housing this year. 

• Weekly inventory change (Oct. 24-Oct. 31): Inventory fell from 867,811 to 856,701
• The same week last year (Oct. 25-Nov. 1): Inventory fell from 735,961 to 735,663

New listings data

New listings data made a historic week-to-week drop. In a typical setting, this would be a significant development, but the data from the last two weeks has been volatile, so please take this data with a grain of salt. To go from 69,000 to 51,000 is not normal. New listings reached my target level of 80,000 per week during the peak weeks of the season, but didn’t grow significantly from those levels, which was a disappointment.         

To give you some perspective, during the years of the housing bubble crash, new listings were soaring between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for many years. Here’s last week’s new listings data over the past two years:

• 2025: 50,827
• 2024: 60,819

Weekly pending sales

Just like the data above, the weekly awaiting home sales had an outsized move two weeks ago to the upside, and now to the downside.

The week ahead: no jobs week, but manufacturing data and Fed speeches

Usually, I would say it’s jobs week! However, until the government shutdown is over, we have no government data to discuss. We have some more Fed speeches scheduled for Friday, during which a host of very hawkish Fed members are expected to say they will not support rate cuts in December. Sarah and I talked about this on the podcast that will go live Monday. We do have sufficient private data to indicate that the labor market hasn’t worsened, but we will see how much impact the government shutdown is having now, as it has been going on for so long. 

Australian home prices have risen sharply since RBA governor Michele Bullock announced three interest rate cuts over 2025.

Australian home prices have blasted higher again, with the typical home now worth nearly $65,000 more than a year ago.

New PropTrack data has laid bare the staggering impact of three rounds of interest rate cuts this year and a surge in demand from first-home buyers, with national prices jumping 0.6 per cent in October to cap off a 7.5 per cent price surge over the past year.

Darwin and Brisbane led the pace when it came to annual price rises, with both cities seeing an average rise in dwelling prices of just under 13 per cent. Adelaide and Perth rises were 10.3 per cent and 11.8 per cent, respectively.

Sydney prices rose 6.4 per cent for the year, while Melbourne (4.2 per cent) and Canberra (2.7 per cent) had the slowest rises, according to the PropTrack Home Price Index.

PropTrack noted national growth was “higher” than the long-term average for annual dwelling price rises and meant home seekers were paying prices that would have been unthinkable a year ago.

Median house prices are now over $1m in three capitals – Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne – while Canberra is on the brink of joining the same club with a median house price of $996,000.

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Buyer competition at auctions has been heating up. Picture: Max Mason-Hubers

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Perth is also approaching the million dollar milestone: the median house price hit $979,000 at the end of October, PropTrack revealed.

Sydney remains the most expensive capital by some measure. The median house price in the Harbour City crossed $1.6m for the first time at the end of October to reach $1.62m.

The latest growth spurt means many of the fears voiced earlier this year are coming true: that the Reserve Bank’s rate cuts, designed to ease cost of living and mortgage pain, have instead supercharged buyer demand and fanned another surge in home values.

REA Group economist Eleanor Creagh said the impact of this year’s three cuts has extended well beyond improvements to buyer’s borrowing power.

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Ms Creagh noted that cheaper interest had improved market sentiment and encouraged buyers who had been sitting on the sidelines last year to get back into the market.

Rate cuts had also instilled a fear among home seekers of further prices rises and this had spurred many to make larger offers on homes to secure them quicker – before prices rose too quickly.

“Buyers expect prices to lift because of rate cuts so they are pulling forward their decisions and that’s contributing greatly to demand,” Ms Creagh said.

She added that the number of homes hitting the market this spring hasn’t kept pace with the increases in demand.

Listings have edged up, but not by nearly enough to match the flood of new buyers and this has helped tighten competition, Ms Creagh said.

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Many of the buyers making offers on properties over the past months were reported to be first-home buyers spurred by the government’s expanded First Home Guarantee scheme.

The program allows first-time buyers to purchase homes with deposits of 2-5 per cent without needing to pay pricey lender’s mortgage insurance.

Two Red Shoes mortgage broker Rebecca Jarret-Dalton said the scheme was pushing up demand across the market – not just from first-home buyers.

“Even those not participating can see that the policy without anything to increase supply is going to drive house prices up,” she said. “All of the language from non-first home buyers is around avoiding the price rises.”

Ms Jarret-Dalton said the scheme needed urgent review.

“There’s an air of the 2007 US market crash about this scheme,” she said. “Access now may mean entrapment long-term. Higher mortgage repayments, greater interest, and what if property value falls? This needs to be regulated to the hilt,” she said.

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Rebecca Jarret-Dalton said there was an “air” of the 2007 US market crash about the First Home Guarantee scheme. Picture: Dylan Robinson

Ms Creagh said a rise in first-home buyer spending has been matched by greater spending from other buyers, particularly investors.

“Population growth has been another factor,” she said. “Our population growth rate has been slowing but it is still historically high and new housing supply remains challenged.”

Ms Creagh said recent higher inflation figures, which have suggested another cut in interest rates may not eventuate this year or early next, won’t dent property demand.

“It’s likely the market will continue to be strong even if the RBA announces no more rate cuts because there was a perception we had already been close to the end of the (cutting cycle).”

The post Revealed: What average Aussie home is now worth after price surge appeared first on realestate.com.au.

Hobart home prices rose again this month. Picture: Supplied

Hobart home prices have continued to stack small gain upon small gain.

PropTrack’s new Home Price Index shows a 0.6 per cent increase in values in October, following 0.8 per cent in September.

Annually, home prices in the southernmost capital city are 6.7 per cent higher than they were at this time last year.

This is a larger percentage increase than was recorded in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.

The research by REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh showed Hobart homes have added $37,800 compared to prices at this time last year, with the median now $682,000.

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REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh.

Ms Creagh said Hobart was among the cities — alongside Darwin, Melbourne and Sydney — that have recorded the fastest acceleration in annual gains.

She said these previously softer markets are regaining momentum.

“Looking ahead, this year’s series of rate cuts, population inflows and the expanded Home Guarantee Scheme will continue to bolster demand,” Ms Creagh said.

“The market appears set for further price gains throughout spring and into summer.”

In regional Tasmania, dwelling values are at a peak price, with the median sitting at $530,000.

This figure is up by 6 per cent annually and 0.5 per cent through October.

Regional homes added $34,400 to prices over the past 12 months.

No.3 Admiral Ct, Blackmans Bay is listed with Peterswald at $1.6m-plus.

Fall Real Estate has No.267 Whittons Rd, Kettering on the market for “Offers over $1.245m”.

The report also found that median values are above half-a-million-dollars in every Tasmanian SA4 region.

Hobart is the most expensive at $682,000, followed by the South East ($584,000), Launceston and North East ($538,000), and the West and North West ($505,000).

The South East grew by 2.5 per cent annually, while the other regions all increased by more than 6 per cent.

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Meanwhile, 30 of Finder’s 35 experts polled in its latest RBA Cash Rate Survey expect the Bank to hold the rate at 3.6 per cent at Tuesday’s meeting.

This is a significant shift from the 69 per cent of panellists who forecast a November rate cut as recently as September.

Economist Saul Eslake. Picture: Chris Kidd

Corinna Economic Advisory’s Saul Eslake said the materially higher-than-expected September quarter CPI had dealt a fatal blow to hopes of a rate cut in November.

He said this had also reduced the chances of a rate cut in February next year.

Hotspotting’s latest Price Predictor Index showed Hobart’s June quarter home sales climbed 9 per cent year-on-year, with quarterly sales marginally above the March reading.

Just over half of greater Hobart’s suburbs are now posting positive sales trends, marking a “cautious revival”, Hotspotting general manager Tim Graham said.

“Sales have inched upward for 18 months, but without the decisive breakouts seen elsewhere,” he said.

“Units have provided a modest boost, though detached houses still dominate local buyer interest.”

The post Hobart home prices edge out major capitals in new data appeared first on realestate.com.au.

Gold Coast home prices have hit a new high of $1.107m. Picture: Supplied

Gold Coast property prices have soared 10.06 per cent over the year to a hit a new high of $1.107m, with experts predicting further gains ahead.

PropTrack’s latest Home Price Index, out today, revealed the Glitter Strip recorded the second highest median in the country, only behind Sydney at $1.228m.

Prop Track senior economist Eleanor Creagh

1 Royal Mews, Sovereign Islands recently sold for $6.9m.

REA Group senior economist and report author Eleanor Creagh said price growth was expected to continue.

“Looking ahead, this year’s series of rate cuts, population inflows and the expanded Home

Guarantee Scheme will continue to bolster demand,” Ms Creagh said.

“With stock on market constrained and new supply challenged, conditions remain tilted toward sellers.

“The market appears set for further price gains throughout spring and into summer.”

Over the October quarter Gold Coast dwellings, including houses and units, were up 2.24 per cent.

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Marina Point Apartments.

Annually, units recorded the biggest growth in value, up 10.09 per cent to a median of $902,000 while houses were up 10.06 per cent to $1.345m.

But the Gold Coast wasn’t the strongest growth market in Queensland with Brisbane recording a 12.6 per cent increase, or $112,700, annually – the largest dollar value rise of all markets in the state.

Cairns property values were up 11.12 per cent annually while Townsville surged by a huge 15.94 per cent — the highest in Queensland.

12 Brittanic Crescent, Sovereign Islands is on the market at $5.95m.

Ray White Malan + Co’s Conner Malan said he believed the unit market was carrying a lot of the growth for the Gold Coast.

“Demand for the Gold Coast unit market is significantly stronger than it has been,” Mr Malan said.

“We are seeing a lot of interstate and downsizer buyers fuelling that market.

“It used to be volatile but as we’ve turned into a bigger city, we are seeing that strength and stability there.”

1199/56 Scarborough Street, Southport is for sale at offers over $649,000.

He predicted the city’s property market to level out over the next six months.

“A lot of properties are starting to sit on the market a little longer,” he said.

“Sellers are conditioned to such constant growth over the past seven years that they expect a lot and buyers are not willing to pay a premium.

“Prices here will still trickle along and increase slightly but it will start to level out.”

39 Savoy Drive, Broadbeach Waters is going to auction on November 15.

The PropTrack report showed national home prices were up 0.6 per cent in October to a new median of $858,000.

Ms Creagh said this extended the upswing to a 10th straight month and lifted values 7.5 per cent higher than a year ago, the strongest annual pace since May, 2024.

“Increased borrowing capacities, lower mortgage rates and improving sentiment are fuelling renewed competition, but the pattern of growth is shifting,” she said.

“Over the past year, Darwin, Hobart, Melbourne and Sydney have seen the fastest acceleration in annual gains with these previously softer markets regaining momentum.

143 Tahiti Avenue, Palm Beach recently sold for $2.670m.

“In contrast, the pace of annual growth is easing from earlier highs in Brisbane, Adelaide and

Perth, though prices are still at record levels and continue to rise briskly.

“All regional markets have slowed, except regional Victoria, narrowing regional market outperformance.”

Ms Creagh said nationally, annual growth had lifted above the 30-year average, yet stretched affordability is a handbrake on growth, which remains well below the 20-30 per cent pace of past booms.

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