Amid near perfect conditions for underquoting, Victoria’s Consumer Affairs Minister Nick Staikos has pledged to have the state’s underquoting task force “out in force”.

Victorian home buyers are facing the worst spring for underquoting since 2021 amid near perfect conditions for dodgy agents to hide their bad behaviour.

Regional real estate agent John Keating has been fighting against underquoting for decades and said three interest rate cuts would “lead to agents underquoting more freely”.

“And you will see more step quoting, where a home started off at $800,000-$880,000, and then went up to $900,000-$950,000 and then to $1m on the night before auction,” Mr Keating said.

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Buyer’s advocates are also sounding the alarm about underquoting this spring as all of the nation’s major banks have tipped Melbourne for significant home price growth over the next 18 months, with Westpac estimating as much as a $100,000 rise is on the cards, while interstate investors are already driving prices far beyond expectations in some areas.

“With all these things, it’s a perfect storm,” said Property Home Base founder Julie DeBondt-Barker.

“It’s smelling like 2021 again, and it was pretty rampant right after Covid.”

Ms DeBondt-Barker said both complaints and instances of underquoting typically rose when the market “starts to take off” and there’s a “smoke screen they (bad agents) can hide behind”.

“But if an agent is in the market every day, they should be able to quote within 10 per cent and get it right — even in a rising market; they know it’s rising,” she said.

Property Home Base founding director and buyers agent Julie DeBondt-Barker has warned underquoting could be at its worst level since 2021 this spring.

But she said there were ways to catch the bad agents out.

She advised contrasting comparable sales for seemingly identical properties listed with their distance from key infrastructure such as local train stations or less versatile floorplans.

She also advised keeping an eye out for agents who routinely dodged questions over whether the vendor’s reserve was in the advertised range, or their homes were regularly not being called “on the market” at auctions despite clearing the top of the guide price.

“And if their results are consistently undisclosed, that’s a warning,” Ms DeBondt-Barker said.

Prominent buyer’s advocate Cate Bakos said buyers should watch out in particular around Box Hill, Thomastown, Lalor, Epping, Sydenham Taylors Lakes and surrounds.

“But generally about 15-20km around the city, that’s where it’s happening most — and the outer east is really bad too,” Ms Bakos said.

Victorian Consumer Affairs minister Nick Staikos has warned underquoting “will not be tolerated”. Picture: NewsWire / Diego Fedele.

Minister for Consumer Affairs Nick Staikos said the state’s underquoting task force would “continue to go after dodgy real estate agents”.

“Our underquoting task force will be out in force in coming months as part of its spring inspection campaign,” Mr Staikos said.

“We are sending a clear message to agents and vendors that underquoting is unfair, illegal and will not be tolerated.”

Since it was launched in 2022 the taskforce has tracked more than 2600 individual sales campaigns, attended more than 300 auctions and issued 191 fines worth a combined $2.1m.

They have also delivered 257 official warnings, but have received more than 6400 submissions from the public and other real estate agents.

You can report underquoting at http://consumer.vic.gov.au/underquoting

Tips To Beat Underquoting This Spring

– Google comparable sales listed in the statement of information and contrast proximity to key infrastructure as well as localstreetscapes;

– Check floorplans are actually comparable, as well as the quality of homes;

– Take note of agents who consistently do not disclose sold prices;

– Watch for agencies whose auctions are routinely not “on the market” after topping their price guide;

– Ask the agent if the reserve is in the price range;

– Ask rival agents what they think about the listed price;

– Take note of any reliable agents you do encounter and ask them about their rivals;

– Use recent sold results to compile your own list of truly comparable sales, and base prices expectations on this.

Source: Cate Bakos Property, Property Home base

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Mortgage spreads are the hero of housing in 2025, quietly helping housing demand pick up even when nobody else notices. What are mortgage spreads? In the slow dance between the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rates since 1971, the mortgage spread is the distance between them — the key variable keeping them close or distant. 

In recent history, the normal mortgage spread has been between 1.60% and 1.80%. In 2023, spreads reached as high as 3.10%, which resulted in higher mortgage rates. Last week, mortgage spreads got as low as 2.15%, making a big difference from the market of 2023 and 8% mortgage rates.

Mortgage spreads

In 2025, my forecast for mortgage spreads was for them to improve by 0.27%-0.41% using a 2025 average of 2.54%. As volatility compresses and the Federal Reserve continues its rate-cut cycle, much like in 2024, the spreads should improve. With mortgage spreads down to 2.15% last week, the improvement reached 0.39%, so we are almost at the peak of my forecast. So, if we see more improvement, then my 2025 forecast was actually too conservative.

Mortgage rates would not have reached a yearly low this year if it weren’t for improved mortgage spreads in 2025. The 10-year yield hasn’t come close to the lows we saw last year at 3.62% intraday, so the spreads have had to do some significant lifting in 2025. 

If the spreads today were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 0.95% percentage points higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.55% to 0.35% lower than today’s level. If we had the best levels of normal spreads, we would have mortgage rates at 5.83% to 6.03% today.

10-year yield and mortgage rates

In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:

• Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.70%

Last week, we saw a significant batch of positive economic data, which pushed the 10-year yield back to a key retracement level I have discussed since we reached 4%. Better economic data can lead to higher bond yields, but we haven’t seen the same level of drama as we did last year, when the 10-year yield dropped as low as 3.62% and then shot up over 40 basis points in 30 days .

Mortgage rates remained relatively stable last week, starting at 6.35% and ending the week at 6.375%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Polly, which shows the locked rate data, has rates at 6.33%.

Purchase application data

Rates have risen from the bottom, but we still saw positive growth in purchase application data this week, with week-to-week growth of 0.3% and year-over-year growth of 18%. I was a bit surprised we didn’t get a negative weekly print, but it was only slightly positive.

Here is the weekly data for 2025 so far:

• 19 positive readings
• 12 negative readings
• 6 flat prints
• 34 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
• 21 consecutive weeks of double-digit growth year over year

Since mortgage rates have gotten below 6.64% and headed toward 6%, the key level I have talked about for years, the weekly data has had:

• 7 positive weeks
• 1 negative week
• 8 straight weeks of double-digit growth year over year

We traditionally need about 12-14 weeks of positive weekly purchase apps data to have a material, impact and the last 8 weeks have been the best 8 weeks of the year.

Weekly pending sales

Our weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week glimpse into the data although it can be impacted by holidays and any short-term shocks. We are still showing slight year-over-year growth in this data line. The pending sales data will typically hit the existing home sales report 30-60 days out. This last week has been our highest weekly pending home sales since home sales crashed in 2022.

Weekly pending sales for last week:

• 2025: 65,152
• 2024: 62,576

Weekly housing inventory data

Last week, we observed a small decline in inventory. We also saw inventory decline In the month of August, which has been rare over the past few years, but was normal in the pre-Covid era. However, I believed that we would see another yearly high before the seasonal decline happened. We have been close, but that still hasn’t occurred and I am running out of time for that call to be correct as the seasonal decline will happen soon.

Regardless of the recent decline, the best story for housing in 2025 was that we have had very healthy inventory growth, which cooled down home prices, which was sorely needed.

• Weekly inventory change (Sept. 19-Sept. 26): Inventory fell from 862,833 to 862,575
• The same week last year (Sept. 20-Sept. 27): Inventory rose from 725,276 to 731,010

New listings data

The new listings data peaked during the week of May 23 this year, reaching a total of 83,143 listings. Since then, this number has gradually declined. We are still showing slight year-over-year growth, but in 2025 once again, we haven’t seen a mass rush of sellers. 

To give you some perspective, during the years of the housing bubble crash, new listings were soaring between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for many years. Here’s last week’s new listings data over the past two years:

• 2025: 65,078
• 2024: 62,987

Price-cut percentage

In an average year, approximately one-third of homes experience price reductions. Homeowners often lower their sale prices when inventory levels increase and mortgage rates remain high, which is why the percentage of price reductions is greater in 2025 than it was last year. This has been another great story for housing in 2025, as the housing market has become a much more friendly market for buyers in 2025.

We haven’t see any growth recently with the price cut data from the peak a few weeks ago as mortgage rates have fallen and inventory growth slowed down. Here are the percentages of homes that saw price reductions last week in the past few years:

• 2025: 41.6%
• 2024: 39%

The week ahead: Jobs week — if the government doesn’t shut down

Yes, it’s that time of the month again — it’s jobs week! Well, assuming the government is still working at that point. If not, we won’t get the full weeks of data. The bar is very low for the Fed to be ok with the jobs data since Jerome Powell blessed job growth from zero to 50,000 as an ok level for the U.S. economy. So unless we are printing negative jobs, don’t look for the Fed to get more dovish under the Jerome Powell-led Federal Reserve.

We also have a ton of Fed members scheduled to speak this week, which will be interesting, plus pending home sales and home price index reports, which of course lag our Housing Market Tracker data by a few months.

What’s better than getting a new home for a great price?

Winning one – and that’s exactly what you can do here with the stunning new build at 6 The Esplanade, Semaphore South, which is the grand prize in this year’s St John Christmas Home Lottery.

And best of all, all proceeds go to supporting the life-saving work of one of the nation’s most trusted emergency care providers.

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The three-storey property has four bedrooms, open-plan living, sweeping ocean views, a magnesium swimming pool, a cinema room, an elevator and a feature wine wall.

St John Ambulance South Australia’s Maree Geraghty said the home’s seaside location came after extensive consultation from visitors of previous lottery homes, where the feedback was conclusive.

The impressive St John Christmas Home Lottery home in Semaphore South, South Australia. Pic: Supplied

The view from the balcony. Pic: Supplied

One of the living areas. Pic: Supplied

“There has been a strong desire for a home on the Esplanade between Grange and Semaphore,” Ms Geraghty said.

“This therefore motivated St John to secure a beachfront property on the Esplanade at Semaphore South and build a custom home with the leading SA luxury builder Samuel James Homes.”

The home’s stunning kitchen. Pic: Supplied

The dining room – the furniture of which is included. Pic: Supplied

The stunning master suite. Pic: Supplied

The fully styled and furnished home – possibly the newest on The Esplanade – took three years to complete and is worth $4.75m, and comes with $250,000 cash, bringing the total prize value up to $5m.

“The house has been designed to appeal to those seeking a beachfront sanctuary, with sweeping views of the ocean and long walks on the sand just meters away,” Ms Geraghty said.

The view from the master suite. Pic: Supplied

How’s that for an ensuite? Pic: Supplied

Ms Geraghty said ticket sales had been overwhelmingly positive and were already half sold within the first two weeks of the lottery’s campaign.

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“All profit goes straight to supporting St John volunteers as they deliver life saving services across the community,” she said.

The cinema room. Pic: Supplied

And the rear yard with outdoor kitchen and swimming pool. Pic: Supplied

Punters have until midnight tonight to get their ticket to qualify for the Mega Draw – worth $150,000 – to be drawn on Wednesday.

Visit stjohnlottery.com.au or call 1300 946 466 to buy tickets.

The post St John Ambulance’s Semaphore South Christmas Home Lottery house is spectacular appeared first on realestate.com.au.

A super Saturday of auctions saw a frenzy of sales across Sydney today, ranging from homes going almost $2m over reserve to buyers bidding via FaceTime from Europe.

A major trend across the day’s auctions was incremental bidding, with more buyers tending to tack on bids as low as $1,000 – or even $500 in one case — late in the auction.

Auctioneer Clarence White said this was due to buyers being more cautious across the market.

“We are still in a reasonably price-cautious market across the board,” he said.

“Everyone is still under pressure with borrowing costs and the cost of living.”

“It’s one of the most layered, complicated markets I’ve worked in.”

A number of auctions across the day were won through cautious, incremental bidding.

Here’s a breakdown of some of the day’s busiest and most bizarre auctions.

INNER WEST

Buyer of a Rosebery apartment Ademir Cortes (centre) with Ray White selling agents Max Klimenko (left) and Dylan Corelli (right). Picture: Supplied.

There was a unique outcome to an apartment auction in Rosebery on Saturday morning, which was eventually won by a buyer on the phone.

While a phone bidder is not uncommon at an auction, buyer Ademir Cortes was not on the phone to the bank but his partner, Lotte Selen, live from the Netherlands.

It was 1am local time for Ms Selen, who joined an exclusive club of buyers to have won an auction in their pyjamas.

Mr Cortes said it added a little bit more stress to the auction process.

“It required a bit more co-ordination than it usually would,” he said.

“Luckily we made sure we had a solid strategy and an upper limit before we went in.”

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Inside the apartment on Crewe Pl.

The two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartment on Crewe Place sold for $1.308m, $408,000 above Roseberry’s median unit price.

The winning couple had been on the hunt for a property for the last three years.

Selling agent Max Klimenko of Ray White Touma Taylor said he was happy to see the couple finally secure a home.

“They missed out on a couple of auctions in Alexandria a couple of months back, so it’s a good end to their property journey,” he said.

Mr Klimenko said it was a “good atmosphere” at the auction, where bidding opened at $1.2m.

Bidding shot up to $1.3m quickly in $20,000 increments, after which the bidding came down to Mr Cortes and a first homebuyer from Surry Hills.

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The couple won the auction under unique circumstances.

A number of $1,000 bids then brought the sale to its final price, which Mr Klimenko said was above reserve.

According to Mr Klimenko, apartment sales in Roseberry always draw higher demand when the property is not a “cookie-cutter” unit.

“This is a boutique block of units compared to everything else you see,” he said.

“These types of properties do really well, because they’re not your usual stock-standard apartments.”

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$1.308m was the winning bid.

Mr Klimenko said the unit attracted strong interest during the campaign from investors, downsizers and first home buyers from all over Sydney.

Even though Ms Selen is a first homebuyer, the couple will not be eligible for the First Home Buyer Assistance Scheme, as Mr Cortes also owns a property in Waterloo.

Ms Selen, who is visiting her family, will be coming home to a new apartment once she returns from her European adventures.

“She actually just finished trekking the Dolomites,” Mr Cortes said.

“That might be a thing of the past now that we have a big mortgage.”

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This Lilyfield Rd townhouse sold for $2.313m.

Edward Riley conducts the auction at the Rozelle property.

About 10km north in Rozelle, auctioneer Edward Riley oversaw the sale of 9 Lilyfield Rd.

The home sold for $313,000 over reserve at $2.313m.

Mr Riley said it was a “highly competitive” auction right from the jump.

“Bidding increments varied in $20k, $10k and $5k bids initially,” he said.

“The eventual purchaser joined the auction at $2.25m and fought it out with another bidder until the end.

“It was a $500 bid at the end that secured it for the successful purchaser.”

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9 Lilyfield Rd, Rozelle. nsw real estate

There were nine registered bidders, four of which were active.

The home was purchased by a downsizer, who is understood to be looking to rent it out now and live in it later once their teenage kids leave home.

Mr Riley said the sale suggests buyers are willing to “stretch themselves” to secure a property close to the city.

“The fierce competition we saw today in Rozelle underpins the strength of the current market, particularly in tightly held inner-city fringe locations,” he said.

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This Beatrice St, Ashfield attracted $1.485m.

Elsewhere in the Inner West, 3 Beatrice St, Ashfield drew a sale $135,000 over reserve.

Auctioneer Chris Scerri oversaw proceedings, during which three bidder of a registered five were active.

The two-bedroom home just off of Remembrance Driveway sold for $1.485m.

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EAST

This Queens Park home sold for $1.36m above reserve.

A crowd of around 70 onlookers, locals and bidders attended a frantic auction on Rawson Ave in Queens Park.

The home sold for $7.31m, $1.36m over reserve.

The auction on Rawson Ave, Queens Park.

The auction came down to a real bidding war between an owner-occupier and a buyers agent, who was bidding in $5,000 increments.

Mr White said it was an interesting strategy.

“You don’t often see it in the Eastern suburbs on a home of this price point,” he said.

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WEST

This home on Cutcliffe Ave, Regents Park sold for $2.201m.

It was a marathon auction at 17 Cutcliffe Ave, Regents Park, which Scerri Auctions auctioneer Angus Robertson oversaw for a total of 37 minutes.

There were six registered bidders, four of which were active.

The six-bedroom family home was purchased by an owner-occupier for a grant total of $2.201m.

The result was $251,000 above reserve, and $851,000 above Regents Park’s median house price.

The post Super Saturday: Sydney auctions see massive turnouts in huge sales appeared first on realestate.com.au.

Increased homebuying affordability, more inventory and fewer competing buyers may lead to a prime week for homebuyers in October, leading to conditions like a “second spring market.”