There appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel for Aussie tenants with new research suggesting an easing of rental market pressures across almost all capital cities.

Latest SQM Research shows the national vacancy rate increased to 1.3 per cent in April – up form 1.1 per cent in March, resulting in 0.7 per cent drop of the average weekly rent of $650.

Over the past 12 months, national rents had risen by 3.9 per cent, a slowdown from previous years, indicating tenants may have somewhat increased negotiating power compared to recent years.

The data, compiled from online listings across major Australian cities, highlighted a growing availability of rental properties, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney, while advertised rents show varied trends across the nation.

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“The rise in national vacancy rates to 1.3 per cent reflects a shift toward a slightly eased rental market, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney, where increased supply is providing tenants with more options,” Managing Director of SQM Research Louis Christopher said.

“However, tight markets in Hobart, Darwin, and Perth continue to favour landlords, potentially

triggering further rental price growth in those regions.

“It is typical that over the winter period, the rental market goes into somewhat of a lull with rental vacancy rates rising a notch.

“This winter might prove to be a good time for tenants looking for rental properties, keeping in mind we don’t expect this lull to last any more than a few months.”

Key Vacancy Rate Findings

Based on SQM Research’s monitoring of unique online rental listings, the total number of vacant residential properties nationwide rose to 39,378 in April 2025, up 18.7 per cent from 33,177 in April 2024.

Melbourne recorded the highest vacancy rate at 1.8 per cent, up significantly from 1.1 per cent in April 2024, with vacancies surging 56.9 per cent to 9,379 properties. This suggests an oversupply or reduced demand in Victoria’s capital, potentially easing rental pressure for tenants.

Sydney, meanwhile, saw its vacancy rate rise from 1.2 per cent to 1.5 per cent, with vacancies

increasing 20.8 per cent to 10,784 properties, reflecting a loosening rental market.

Brisbane maintained a relatively tight market, with a vacancy rate of 1 per cent, up slightly

from 0.9 per cent in March 2025.

Perth and Adelaide continued to reported low vacancy rates of 0.7 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively throughout April, though both saw increased vacancies – with available homes in Peth climbing to 1425 and 1233 in Adelaide, indicating slight softening in these tight markets.

Canberra, Darwin, and Hobart recorded declines in vacancies, with Hobart’s vacancy

rate dropping to 0.7 per cent from 1.4 per cent in April 2024, signalling a return to a landlord-favoured market.

City-Specific Rental Trends

Sydney’s advertised weekly rent comes in at $853, with no change recorded between March and April. The higher 1.5 per cent vacancy rate suggests an easing rental market (compared to 2024), tempering current rent growth.

In Melbourne, weekly rents are $649 – up 0.1 per cent over the past month, with a year-on-

year rise of 2.3 per cent. The near balanced 1.8 per cent vacancy rate is likely contributing to this softening in rental prices.

The weekly median rent of $685 remained unchanged in Brisbane over the past month but is up 4.5 per cent year-on-year. The 1 per cent vacancy rate supports moderate rent growth,

though the flat monthly change indicates a potential plateau.

In Adelaide, weekly rents are $613, down 1 per cent over the past month, with a year-

on-year increase of 4.7 per cent.

The 0.8 per cent vacancy rate aligns with a tight market, though the monthly drop rent indicates relatively easing pressure.

Peth and Canberra, meanwhile, both recorded monthly rental increases of 0.2 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively.

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The majority of Australians making the leap onto the property ladder are managing to save the required funds without any external help, Mortgage Choice has found.

As property prices continue to reach new highs across the country, getting into the market has become increasingly difficult.

Despite this, the latest Mortgage Choice Home Loan Report shows over three quarters of prospective homeowners across all age groups are managing to gather a deposit through personal savings alone.

A total 74% of those surveyed who are Generation Z (aged 18-28) said they funded their deposit through personal savings, alongside 70% of Millennials (those aged 29-44) and 69% of Generation X (ages 45-60).

Competition in the market is also strong, with submission data from Mortgage Choice showing an uplift in first home buyer activity in particular over the March quarter, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate cut in February.

The number of loans rose 5.6% in the 12 months to March, while the value of loans also rose 12.3% year-on-year, the report showed.

While personal savings are the major winner when it comes to deposits, help is still on hand for many.

Generation Z were the age group found most likely to be borrowing funds to save for a house deposit, with over a quarter (29%) of survey respondents confirming this as part of their plan.

Those aged 18-28 were also most likely to receive a cash gift from family to help with a deposit (22%), ahead of Millennials (16%) and Generation X (8%).

Generation Z were also more likely to be using the First Home Guarantee and the First Home Super Saver schemes.

The findings come as new PropTrack data shows the median price of a home in Australia hit a new record high in April, rising 0.2% to reach $805,000.

Sydney, Brisbane and Canberra continue to be the most expensive capital cities in which to buy, with respective average home prices of $1,118,000, $882,000 and $822,000.

This article first appeared on Mortgage Choice and has been republished with permission.

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Peter Mumford doesn’t shy away from challenges, he thrives on them.

“I get excited when someone tells me I won’t make it, it gives me more fire in the belly,” Mr Mumford, the founder and chief executive of Stone Real Estate, told realestate.com.au.

For Mr Mumford, competition isn’t just motivation, it’s fuel. It’s a mindset that has propelled him from the hospitality industry into the rising ranks of Australian real estate.

Stone Real Estate has grown to more than 70 offices and more 800 personnel across Australia and New Zealand since launching in 2015. The network is only a decade old, but it’s scaling fast and built with the motivation of someone who’s spent a career playing the long game.

“We’re not chasing transactions, we’re building long-term relationships,” Mr Mumford said.

Stone started out of Sydney’s Northern Beaches, but has expanded throughout New South Wales and Queensland, with a growing footprint in Victoria, Tasmania, and across the Tasman. But its rise has been unconventional, much like its chief executive’s career path.

Mr Mumford’s background isn’t in property, but in kitchens.

He trained as a chef and spent his twenties and thirties building and selling restaurants, catering firms and event companies.

“I always knew I’d run my own businesses,” he said. “I’ve built them, sold them, and then started again.”

He started one of Sydney’s leading boutique catering businesses, Blue Rock Group, out of his home office in the 1990s, and then sold it to the Rydges Hotels group in 2001. After exiting the catering and events business, he had a go at coffee farming. But a twist of fate, which resulted in all of his coffee trees dying, spurred him on to have a go at real estate.

“At the time I thought real estate looked easy and would give it a go, but I was wrong, and it wasn’t easy,” he said.

Armed with little more than an online course and his own capital, Mr Mumford entered the real estate market in the early 2000s, just as the market took a turn for the worst. He described it as “a baptism of fire”, but within six months, he had written $400,000 in sales and acquired a small First National agency.

He expanded to several offices and joined the McGrath network, where he helped recruit agents and scale offices, before he broke away to launch Stone.

But building Stone wasn’t easy either.

“Running a business is stressful,” he said. “You get sick and you get stressed about money, sometimes wondering how to pay wages next week.”

“Everybody that’s built a small business usually goes through that.

“I remember my mum had a little dress shop in Manly, and she used to say to me, ‘in business you will do things that other people won’t do, so that you will enjoy things that others only dream about.’”

One of the highlights of Mr Mumford’s role is working with the people at Stone and helping them grow in their careers.

“My role is about finding the right people who are much better at the different roles than me in the business,” he said.

“I coach some of our principals weekly, while others prefer to just run with the brand and marketing. We let them build businesses that suit their goals.”

“It’s about giving people autonomy and the freedom to do the job, while making sure that everyone is rowing in the same direction.”

That direction includes a push toward smarter systems and training, expanding the brand, better use of AI, and improving the sustainability of their office operations. Despite the ambition, Mr Mumford noted that growth wasn’t the only metric.

“We work with principals to unpack what they want and what their ‘big hairy audacious goal’ is in life,” he said, quoting the popular term coined by business management gurus Jim Collins and Jerry Porras.

For some, it’s a laser focus on growing their businesses at pace, while others pursue something that allows a little more time to enjoy life outside of the office. Even Mr Mumford carves out time to spend with family and friends, and pursue his hobbies.

Mr Mumford and his wife Louise have sailed for more than 20 years, and used to participate in the Hamilton Island race week every year.

“There were days of pure adrenaline when you were going 25 knots and the spinnaker was flying, and then there were days of no wind and you just bobbed along like a cork,” he said.

Mr Mumford also likes to ski with the family, typically travelling to Europe to enjoy the slopes, food and culture. Yet his focus always returns to the business.

“I’ll probably work until I die,” he said with a laugh. “Not because I have to but because I enjoy it.”

It’s that competitive instinct that remains central to everything he does.

“We all need something that gets under our skin and pushes us, it’s what keeps me going.”

And it’s likely that that competitive spirit will be what continues to give Stone Real Estate its edge.

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Century 21 Judge Fite has a long history of independence, with an emphasis on long.

The Dallas-based brokerage was founded in 1937 by Judge B. Fite. Over its almost 100-year history, it’s grown from a mom-and-pop operation to one that has more than 1,000 agents that closed 4,432 transactions in 2024, good for $1.8 billion in sales volume.

With its history and success, Judge Fite has seen its fair share of suitors over the years looking to acquire it, but CEO Ashley Conlon sees value in remaining a franchise with Century 21, which the brokerage joined in 1997.

“I have heard Jim Fite say we are not for sale hundreds, if not thousands, of times,” Conlon said, referring to Judge Fite’s son, who took over the brokerage in 1977. “What shines is the culture of our company, which would be lost if we were to sell. We make local decisions and have a history of helping agents succeed.”

Judge Fite is one of many brokerages that have resisted the temptation to sell to younger, single-entity national brokerages that have stormed onto the space with explosive growth.

Conlon says staying a franchise gives Judge Fite the best of both worlds. They can maintain their independent identity while also benefiting from being part of a vast network of resources in a rapidly shifting industry.

The brokerage received valuable briefings on how to navigate new rules related to the $418 million settlement agreed to by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which changes the way agents can communicate offers of compensation, in addition to redesigned buyer broker agreement. Century 21 also provides a network for franchisees to share lessons and best practices.

RealTrends Verified rankings show in no uncertain terms that others see the same value. Keller Williams (807,323), RE/MAX (383,039) and Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices (352,364) all closed more sides in 2024 than the leading independent brokerage, which is eXp at 350,119.

HomeServices CEO Chris Kelly says that established brands will always have something to offer regardless of new entrants.

“It’s not about just being new, it’s about being relevant,” he said. “In real estate, we all get this hair-on-fire approach where everything’s going to go to any new model,” he said. “We have that durability, but I also think we have to continue to make sure that we are being relevant for what the agent and consumer are looking for in today’s real estate.”

What the franchisers have in number they lack in growth. Keller Williams and RE/MAX were effectively flat in sides between 2023 and 2024, and HomeServices sides fell by 3.2%. Among the major franchisers, United Real Estate (14.7%), Sotheby’s (10.3%) and Century 21 (9.2%) showed the most growth in transactions.

Those are solid numbers, but they pale compared to the independent startups that are in hyper growth mode. LPT Realty (175.2%), SERHANT. (135.7%) and The Real Brokerage (84.6%) — some of the buzziest new brokerages in the space — showed astronomical year-over-year increases in sides.

But to some extent, the big franchisers are simply playing out the life cycle of a company. Companies start small, raise money, grow fast, reach the top and then either stay there, stagnate, or fall apart.

Kelly likens franchisers to big box retailers. The narrative during Amazon’s rise was that it would put those companies out of business. While many certainly did, Wal-Mart, Target and even Best Buy found a way to not only survive but thrive, even if Circuit City, K-Mart and other competitors went kaput.

RealTrends Verified founder Steve Murray sees a similar dynamic among brokerages.

“It’s not like [franchisers] are going away,” he said. “They’re still strong companies, they’re still large, but they don’t strike fear in the hearts of their competitors anymore, and they’ve stopped growing. There’s a dozen innovative new model companies that have more revenue share or they’re lower cost or they have better technology.”

What will happen to mortgage rates now that China and the U.S. have made progress in their trade war, agreeing to a 90-day period of lower tariffs? Stocks are up considerably this morning and bond yields have also increased. This raises the question: Is the de-escalation of the trade war good for mortgage rates? The trade deals are just one factor, but I see three possible scenarios for mortgage rates in this environment.

First, let’s start with my 2025 forecast for mortgage rates and the bond market, where I anticipated the following ranges:

• Mortgage rates will be between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The 10-year yield will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%.

So far this year, the 10-year yield has ranged between 4.80% and 3.87%, if I count after-hours trading. Mortgage rates have stayed between 7.25% and 6.55%. While my 10-year yield range has stuck for most of the year, the chaos from Godzilla tariffs has impacted the bond market, mortgage spreads and the economy.

Now let’s take a look at the three possible scenarios for mortgage rates given a more stable economic environment.

1. We avoid a recession and mortgage rates stay elevated

If the trade war calms down and we manage to avoid a recession, is that bad for mortgage rates? The answer is yes. If the economy is not headed for a downturn, considering the current Federal Reserve policy, mortgage rates could remain elevated, ranging between 6.75% and 7.25% in 2025.

The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped significantly in recent years when the bond market anticipates a weakening economy, often in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts. We observed this trend again this year when the 10-year yield fell below 4%, even though current economic data did not support such a decline. The market nonetheless believed the economy would weaken.

Generally, it’s a great thing for the country not to go into a recession, but a strong economy is bad for rates. Currently, the 10-year yield is up a few basis points due to the news with China and is trading at 4.44%.

2. Mortgage spreads improve

Assuming my 10-year yield channel sticks, mortgage spreads should behave better, which will help with mortgage rates staying in the 2025 range we have seen between 6.55%-7.25%. After the Godzilla tariffs, the market went nuts; when that happens, the mortgage spreads tend to worsen. This added a 0.10% to 0.25% increase to mortgage rates during the past few weeks. Mortgage spreads have improved, as you can see in the chart below.

If we see more trade deals getting done, the Fed could continue with the two rate cuts they had discussed in 2025 without the labor market breaking, and the year looks the same as it would have without so much tariff drama. As long as the labor market doesn’t break, the Fed won’t get aggressive here with their inflation expectations due to the size of the tariffs.

This will be a big tug of war on the economic data. Can the U.S. economy keep expanding with the tariff percentage higher this year than last, less government money being spent into the economy and the firing of federal workers? This backdrop continues what we have seen all year, so more of the same.

3. The economy doesn’t hold up and the Fed gets more aggressive

Suppose the economy weakens further while more trade deals are being made. In that case, the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance and cut rates more than the two rate cuts forecasted for 2025. They might believe supply shortages and higher prices are temporary and will eventually decrease, leading them to focus on their dual mandate and adopt a more dovish tone.

If the labor market deteriorates, the Fed may shift its discussion from neutral interest rates to accommodative rates and actions. This backdrop would create a more favorable environment for them, especially if trade deals are finalized and more certainty around trade emerges. As a result, reaching a 6% interest rate may become more achievable.

Jobless claims data, while off the cycle lows, have not indicated a recession in the labor market yet.

Conclusion

We are not entirely out of the woods with the economy yet. However, the more trade deals we finalize and the greater certainty we establish with businesses, the more favorable it is for the U.S. economy. But good news for the economy might not be great for housing and mortgage rates can stay elevated in this environment. As we can see in the chart below, housing tends to do better when a recession starts because rates tend to fall, and home sales have already fallen from higher mortgage rates.

When it comes to mortgage rates, I’m adhering to my forecast model for 2025. If the Federal Reserve is compelled to cut rates further, we could see mortgage rates drop to the lower end of the range. Conversely, if inflation remains stubborn and it takes longer to stabilize prices while the labor market holds steady, rates could stay at the upper end of our forecast. For the remainder of the year, it is crucial to closely monitor all economic data to identify potential issues and stay informed about developments in the trade war.