It goes without saying that those with the largest mortgages will save the most in the event of an interest rate cut, but new data reveals homeowners in South Australia’s most affordable suburbs stand to save potentially more than $100 a month on repayments after the Reserve Bank’s next meeting.

Data analysis by Compare The Market shows, should the RBA cut the official cash rate on Tuesday by 0.25 per cent, median-priced unit owners in Salisbury will see a mortgage repayment reduction of $54, assuming their lender passes on the cut in full.

A cut of 0.5 per cent would see them save $107 a month off their current monthly repayments of $2023 on a $421,843 property.

Assuming a 0.25 cut is passed on in full, unit owners in neighbouring Salisbury East would also see an instant saving of $60 a month, and $118 should a 0.5 per cent cut be passed on.

This would bring their repayments down from their current $2236 to $2176 in the event of a 0.25 per cent cut, and $2118 if the cash rate is cut by 0.5 per cent.

FIND HOW MUCH YOU’LL SAVE IN YOUR SUBURB HERE

Real Estate Institute of South Australia legislation and industry adviser Paul Edwards said an interest rate cut would have a profound impact on the daily life of SA’s most vulnerable homeowners.

“For those at that more affordable end of the market, that sort of saving can have a much more noticeable difference to the family budget,” he said.

“If you are relying on an interest rate cute in order to be able to manage your mortgage then it’s time to be proactive about it and speak to your bank or get refinancing.

“People should absolutely make sure their bank passes any cut on in full and if they don’t they should shop around.”

The research shows buyers with an annual household income of $200,000 per year could see their borrowing power increase by as much as $100,600 should the cash rate drop by 1 per cent in the coming months and these reductions are passed on in full.

Compare the Market property expert Andrew Winter said this could send prices soaring, and urged people looking to enter the market to do so now.

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“The markets in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Sydney have been extremely resilient, and that’s largely because there isn’t enough supply to keep up with demand,” Mr Winter said.

“These markets have performed well in less-than-ideal conditions. Another round of rate cuts is likely to add fuel to the fire.”

While owners in affordable markets would see moderate monthly reductions, those holding SA’s largest mortgages stand to see the biggest savings.

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House owners in Tusmore, which has a median price of $2.17m, currently pay $10,409 a month in mortgage repayments.

In the event of a 0.25 per cent cut, this would drop by $277 a month, and should the RBA cut the cash rate by 0.5 per cent – $551.

St Peters homeowners stand to save $543 in the event of a 0.5 per cent rate cut passed on in full, and Netherby house owners $528.

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Fans have been given a rare glimpse inside Madonna’s $US40 million ($62 million) New York City home.

Fashion expert Lyas shared a peek into the “Material Girl” singer’s triple-wide Georgian townhouse on the Upper East Side in a video posted to TikTok and Instagram this week.

The pop star’s residence features a moody interior, luxurious finishes and several masterpieces by famous artists like Keith Haring and Jean-Michel Basquiat, Page Six reports.

“Guys, this is insane. I’m in Madonna’s house,” he said before filming inside the expansive manse, which reportedly has 13 bedrooms.

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The style guru began by showing black French doors leading to a foyer with tiled flooring and a black-painted staircase accented with a framed throwback photograph of Madonna with the late Basquiat.

Upstairs, a large dining room table topped with lit candelabras was situated on a geometric rug beneath a modern chandelier.

On the wall, there was a massive black-and-white portrait of Madonna, 66, reclining on a chair that acclaimed photographer Steven Klein took.

Lyas then filmed inside the mother of six‘s office, which had bookshelves filled with accolades like her Golden Globe Awards and Rock & Roll Hall of Fame trophy.

There was also a gorgeous white couch, a desk, a centre table with a pink floral arrangement, family photos and lots of art leaning in various spaces.

A living room area boasted a cozy fireplace, a seating area and a piano surrounded by guitars.

“This is giving coven,” Lyas joked of the shadowy space before showing off a framed image of the Queen of Pop with former President Barack Obama — signed by the politician.

The room also had an original artwork by Haring, a never-before-seen sketch of Madonna by Basquiat and collector’s items such as coffee-table books and a typewriter containing rewrites of her 1987 film, “Who’s That Girl.”

A private bar room was filled with glassware accentuated by mirrored walls and a glass chandelier.

Lyas explored several hallways, all decorated with high-end art pieces, before making his way up the stairs to a beautiful glam room where Madonna sat in a chair while smoking a cigar.

“Oh, hi,” the influencer said, prompting the “Vogue” singer to greet him nonchalantly while taking a puff.

The all-white dressing room had several mirrors and a vanity as well as a table set up for makeup and hair products.

Multiple sconces and a large drum chandelier lit the room with a soft glow.

The video was seemingly filmed recently, as Madonna was dressed in the same white Tom Ford tuxedo she wore to the 2025 Met Gala.

Parts of this story first appeared in Page Six and was republished with permission.

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After long-weekends and election interruptions, buyers roared back to auctions spurred by rate-cut hopes ahead of the Reserve Bank meeting.

A fiery auction in Alexandria saw a vendor walk away with a $1.6m windfall in just ten years.

A freestanding terrace at 30 Phillips St has sold for a whopping $3.371m, almost doubling in value since it last sold in March 2015.

The home sold well above the $2.6m price guide, due to heated bidding from five of the nine registered bidders.

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Almost 100 people crowded the tree-lined inner Sydney street, to watch the drama unfold.

All bidders were local couples and families, some upgrading others downsizing.

Lead agent Brad Gillespie from The Agency said the home ticked every box for families.

The four-bedroom modern terrace had high ceilings, a lock up garage and larger bedrooms than an older Victorian terrace would, he added.

“I think rate cuts are motivating buyers and they’re already factoring (a rate cut) in,” Mr Gillespie said.

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The bidding opened strong at $2.85m, other bidders jumping in with urgency promptly after.

Cooleys auctioneer Damien Cooley said it was an auction with “everything in it.”

“It had so many ebbs and flows, it was fast then it was slow … I like a fast auction, but what I also like is a stage in the auction when I give people a moment to gather their thoughts.”

Smoothly conducted by Mr Cooley, there were moments when bidders almost conceded but threw their hat back in the ring.

The underbidder, a young local Mum lost out by just a $1,000 bid in the end.

Following the Phillips St auction, Mr Gillespie and Mr Cooley held another fierce auction, selling a two-bedroom apartment for $1.3955m.

Selling almost $100,000 over reserve, the two-bedroom unit at 10/138 Botany Rd had ten registered bidders, six of them actively bidding.

“Alexandria has been popular for a long time now, but I do feel because of the Waterloo metro, its so easy to get into the city, it is bringing more people to the area,” Mr Gillespie said.

Mr Cooley said that talks of interest rate cuts was “encouraging for buyers.”

“Its also encouraging for vendors to put their property on the market … today I’m walking away with a buoyant feeling that things are going to improve,” Mr Cooley said.

Proptrack places Alexandria’s median at $2.1m for a house and $935,000 for an apartment.

SHABBY TO CHIC

In southwest Sydney a run-down Revesby property has sold for $1.535m, $335,000 above its reserve.

The fiery auction attracted 18 registered bidders, all of which had a bid.

The price guide was set at $1.1m and the reserve was $1.2m.

Ray White Revesby agent Abir Eddine said the auction was “amazing.”

“There’s a shortage of houses in the area,” she said. “There’s a lot of duplexes but not many houses to live in and this was in prime location, double brick and close to the station.

“It does need about $150,000-$200,000 in renovations though.”

The home was in “original condition,” and hadn’t been updated since 1960, she added.

Ms Eddine said there was more desperation from homeseekers due to rate cuts.

“(There are) fears from buyers that they don’t want to be pushed out of the market when the rates drop because prices will rise,” she said.

“The last two weeks it’s really pumping in terms of buyers especially because they know that the Reserve Bank is going to meet.”

A DOON-DEAL

A Doonside home has sold for $1.375m, $185,000 above reserve.

Sitting on a 917 sqm block, the home at 44 Graham St had a whopping 24 registered bidders, with families, developers and investors all looking to purchase with a family from Blacktown coming out on top.

“It was a very lovely well decorated home, close to the shops and station, that location is very important to buyers,” lead agent Sam Yazdi from Ray White Quakers Hill said.

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Victoria’s typical house hunter is just days away from an up to $35,000 boost to their home buying hopes, with predictions of 2025’s second interest rate cut on Tuesday.

Figures from Compare the Market show Melbourne homeowners in almost every suburb will be saving upwards of $100 a month on mortgage repayments if the Reserve Bank slashes the nation’s cash rate by 0.5 percentage points on Tuesday.

But the real winners could be those looking to buy their first home or upgrade to a bigger one.

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Analysis by Mortgage Choice has revealed a family able to pay the state’s average $628,000 home loan today, which covers homes up to $785,000 with a 20 per cent deposit, are just days away from being able to borrow $645,000 if there is even just a 0.25 percentage point cut this week.

That number will rise to $663,000 if more bullish hopes of a 0.5 percentage point reduction are realised, while by the end of the year it is looking likely a full 1 percentage point chop over a series of RBA moves could boost their borrowing power to a whopping $701,000.

That would be enough to get that homeowner an $876,000 property.

Australia’s fourth biggest bank, the National Australia Bank, is among those predicting a total of 1.5 percentage points worth of interest rate cuts by February next year — starting with a 0.5 percentage point reduction this week, according to chief economist Sally Auld.

Ms Auld said the RBA was in a position where they need “to play catch up”, with four further cuts possible in July, August, November and February.

Mortgage Choice Berwick broker David Thurmond said homebuyers would effectively have tens of thousands of dollars added to their budget by next weekend, as while banks would take several weeks to pass on the cut — purchases would not settle before the cut was made.

“And we (brokers) will be able to know what they will be able to pay long before they need it formally,” Mr Thurmond said.

For many, the broker said a 0.5 percentage point rate cut by the RBA would be the big one psychologically.

“It would show they are serious about lowering rates with that big of a drop, and it will show that the RBA will be focused on one thing and one thing only: keeping the economy going,” Mr Thurmond said.

With a potential extra $60,000 on offer for most first-home buyers, Mr Thurmond said they would be the first to respond.

“There are five or six I’m working with who will be able to make a move after a 0.5 percentage point cut straight away,” he said.

Families looking to upsize will also likely make moves in the near future, though he noted a number of them will probably wait for home values to rise first as they look for an equity boost to their purchasing plans.

Separate Compare the Market data tracking projected mortgage costs based on loans covering 80 per cent of the median house price in 377 suburbs, shows that a 0.5 percentage point cut would be enough to cut monthly interest rate repayments by $124 a month in Melton and up to $902 a month in Deepdene.

For unit owners in the more than 250 suburbs analysed, the same parameters would lead to savings of $93 in a month in Carlton, and as much as $300 in more well-heeled areas like Beaumaris and Brighton.

The comparison website’s property expert Andrew Winter said the bigger issue for many buyers in a cost-of-living crisis would now be saving a deposit.

“The main hurdle for most first-time buyers is raising a deposit which can be extremely

challenging when value growth outpaces wage growth in such an extreme way,” Mr Winter

said.

“The good news is there are a number of low-deposit and stamp duty incentives open to first

home buyers. Saving 5 per cent is a lot more achievable than saving 20 per cent.”

However, the prominent property pundit warned the rate cuts could also drive a “fear of missing out frenzy” and those who were ready to make a move now, could be wise to do so rather than waiting for further rate cuts.

Real Estate Buyers Agents Association of Australia Victorian representative Matthew Scafidi echoed Mr Winter’s comments, and said he’d been warning prospective homebuyers to make a move for the past three to four months.

“I do think that people will be worse off if they wait,” Mr Scafidi said.

“There are price reductions happening in some areas right now.

“Once we get a few interest rate cuts, that will shift.”

However, while rate cuts were likely in the months ahead, he warned off borrowing too much, with the prospect rates could well rise again in the next five to seven years – and potentially before homebuyers got a chance to significantly reduce their mortgage.

Mr Scafidi advised those who couldn’t make a move now to ensure they asked lots of questions from real estate agents later in the year, particularly seeking to establish what price the seller would accept, what was motivating the sale and how the sale would be finalised, as all of these things could help give them an edge.

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One of the lesser known storylines in housing economics is that the improvement in mortgage spreads since 2023 has contributed to a noticeable trend in purchase application data for 2025, which is now showing 15 consecutive weeks of positive year-over-year growth. 

Mortgage spreads recently turned negative due to market volatility, which resulted in an increase of 20 to 25 basis points in mortgage rates. However, as the stock and bond markets have stabilized, mortgage spreads have improved. If we had not seen this improvement since the peak in 2023, we likely would not have experienced the growth in purchase applications this year.

Mortgage spreads

Mortgage spreads — the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year mortgage rate — are a complex topic. Over the past decade, they haven’t received much attention because spreads were typical and not a concern. Under normal circumstances, the spread typically ranges from 1.60% to 1.80%. A historical review of these spreads shows that they are currently elevated.

If the spreads were as bad now as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 0.75% higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.55% to 0.75% lower than today’s level — that would mean nearly 6% mortgage rates.

For 2025, I was looking for the spreads to improve only 0.27%-0.41% from a base average of 2.54% in 2024. That hasn’t happened so far this year. For the spreads to improve in the future, we need the markets to be calm and get more Fed rate cuts into the system.

10-year yield and mortgage rates

In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:

• Mortgage rates will be between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The 10-year yield will fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%

The 10-year yield experienced fluctuations this week, surpassing 4.50% before dropping back down. However, mortgage rates remained relatively stable due to improved mortgage spreads, which help mitigate the impact of rising yields. On Friday night, Moody’s downgraded U.S. debt, causing the 10-year yield to increase by a few basis points. We’ll see how the markets react to this on Monday.

Technically speaking, this downgrade doesn’t change the status of those holding U.S. Treasuries, so many market participants are not overly concerned about it. However, the timing was not ideal, as the Republicans are working on their budget this weekend.

Purchase application data

Purchase application data was up 18% year over year last week, coming off a 13% year-over-year print the previous week. I traditionally weigh the purchase application data from the second week of January to the first week of May, since volumes tend to fall after May. So, seeing this growth with elevated rates is a surprise. Usually, we see this type of data when mortgage rates move from 6.64% toward 6%. Remember, the purchase application data looks out 30-90 days, so you won’t see this in this week’s existing home sales report or possibly even next month’s either.

Here is the weekly data for 2025:

• 9 positive readings
• 6 negative readings
• 3 flat prints
• 15 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data 

Total pending sales

The latest weekly data on total pending sales from Altos provides valuable insights into current trends in housing demand. Typically, it takes mortgage rates nearing 6% to foster real growth in the housing market. While total pending home sales are slightly higher than last year, it is surprising to see this data remain steady despite elevated rates in 2025. Fortunately, mortgage spreads have improved from the high levels seen in 2023; otherwise, we wouldn’t have this conversation.

Weekly pending sales for the last week over the past several years:

• 2025: 409,896
• 2024: 400,653
• 2023: 387,251

Weekly housing inventory data

In great news for the housing market in 2024 and 2025, we’re seeing an increase in inventory! It’s a positive step toward getting things back to normal levels, just like we had before the pandemic. More homes available should help the market work more smoothly over the long run. Let’s celebrate this seasonal uptick in inventory as a step in the right direction!

• Weekly inventory change (May 9-May 16): Inventory rose from 755,895 to 767,274
• The same week last year (May 10-May 17): Inventory rose from 568,557 to 578,015
• The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497
• The inventory peak for 2025 is 767,274
• For some context, active listings for the same week in 2015 were 1,124,747

New listings data

Another positive development for 2025 is that new listing data is on the rise. Last week, we reached the minimum forecast of 80,000 listings during the seasonal peak period. Although there was a slight decrease last week, it’s encouraging to note that both new listings data and purchase applications are up compared to last year. This hasn’t occurred over the last few years. We can attribute this growth to the improvements in mortgage spreads.

To give you perspective, during the years of the housing bubble crash, new listings were soaring between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for many years. The growth we see in new listings data is just trying to return to normal, where the seasonal peaks range between 80,000 and 110,000 per week. The national new listing data for last week over the previous several years:

• 2025: 76,112
• 2024: 67,530
• 2023: 59,072

Price-cut percentage

In a typical year, about one-third of homes undergo price reductions, highlighting the housing market’s dynamic nature. As inventory levels increase and mortgage rates rise, many homeowners are making adjustments to their sale prices.

In my 2025 price forecast, I anticipated a modest increase in home prices of around 1.77%. This means yet another year of a negative real home prices for 2025. What can make my forecast wrong is a drop in mortgage rates to near 6%, which can make my forecast too low again. In 2024, my price forecast of 2.33% was incorrect as it was too low, and I lost it when mortgage rates headed toward 6%.

The increase in price cuts this year compared to last reinforces the validity of my conservative growth forecast for 2025. Below is a summary of the price cuts from previous weeks over the last few years:

• 2025: 37.4%
• 2024: 34%
• 2023: 30%

The week ahead: Debt downgrade, Fed speeches and home sales

We will see how the market handles the debt downgrade on Sunday night and Monday morning, and we’ll also get any update on the new budget. We have a lot of Fed presidents talking this week as well and we always like to monitor how the market reacts to their take.

We also have both existing and new home sales reports coming up. The existing home sales report for April might disappoint a tad from expectation and remember the growth we have seen in purchase apps recently looks out 30-90 days. We always keep an eye out on jobless claims data, which came in ok this last week.

Hopefully, the stock and bond markets will behave this week, as mortgage spreads have improved. With the 10-year yield still elevated, the housing market needs these spreads to stay at the low 2025 levels.