$1m-plus price surge: What your home could be worth in 2030

No.16 Fourth Ave, Dodges Ferry is listed with Harcourts Signature and priced at “Offers over $890,000”. Picture: realestate.com.au

Two of Hobart’s more affordable suburbs are projected to be among the city’s leaders in home value growth.

And they won’t be alone with a large group set to reach a $1m price by 2030.

Realestate.com.au’s research arm has calculated what the median house price will be across 37 greater Hobart suburbs.

This was based on areas with at least 30 annual sales. It is not a forecast, rather a projection of what prices could be if growth in the next five years follows that of the last five years.

SOLD: No.7 Cootamundra Ct, Dodges Ferry was sold for $795,000 by Homelands Property. Picture: Supplied

Dodges Ferry and Rokeby recorded the largest five-year growth change, increasing by 84 and 85 per cent.

Projected forwards, this would see Dodges Ferry move from $685,000 for a typical house to $1.268m. And Rokeby would shift from $630,000 to $1.157m.

Of the analysed areas, only Sandy Bay has a 2025 median value higher than $1m.

If the five-year growth projection came to fruition, this figure would balloon to 17 suburbs.

Southern Beaches expert, Donna Wooley from Homelands Property, said that while 85 per cent growth is a large increase, it was also “not at all surprising”.

Ms Wooley said Dodges Ferry was growing from a low base, coupled with a clear lifestyle appeal.

Dodges Ferry. Picture: Supplied

“Lifestyle has played a massive part in the incredible growth we have experienced, especially in the wake of Covid and lockdowns and working from home,” she said.

“Every morning there are swimmers and surfers at the beach getting their saltwater fix before heading off to work.

“A combination of flexible work opportunities and the infrastructure works at the Sorell bypass and the upgrade at Midway Point and the Hobart Airport makes the commute to the city less than 40 minutes.

“Dodges Ferry and the Southern Beaches as a whole is a great place to live.”

Homelands Sorell affiliate partner Donna Wooley. Picture: Supplied

Ms Wooley said a range of factors contribute to home value growth or a slowdown in any market.

In her patch, the current market has corrected itself following the “frenzy of late 2020 and 2021”.

“At that time, my average time on the market was just six days, and properties were selling for up to 30 per cent above the asking price,” she said.

“We have seen 10 years’ worth of growth in the last five years — when the cash rate was at an all-time low and mainland investors were buying sight unseen.

“I would be amazed if we saw that again moving forward.

“However, I can understand the desire to live by the beach.”

Meanwhile, comparing capital cities over the same timeframe, Hobart would become more expensive than Melbourne by 2030, with Hobart reaching $1.011m and its sister city pushing up to $1.001m.

Executive manager of economics at REA Group, Angus Moore, said that home values over the past five years had been “strong”.

PropTrack economist Angus Moore. Picture: Supplied

“We are expecting that we’re going to see home prices grow this year … and the reason for that is that we expect to see interest rates falling,” he said.

“That’s going to boost borrowing capacities.

“However, we’re certainly not expecting to see anything like the pace of growth that we saw in 2021 when prices grew incredibly quickly.

“Broadly, for this year, we’re expecting to see low to mid-single digit growth in home prices.

“We expect some of the smaller markets to do a little bit better.”

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